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How To Fake Being An Expert On The 9 Movies That Matter At This Year’s Oscars

It’s that time of year again, when movies that got released months ago undertake a marketing blitz, media prognosticators come out of the woodwork, and the mound of sloughing flesh once known as Billy Crystal checks its shadow, to see whether or not it needs to rent a tux. Yes, it’s the final countdown to the 85th annual Academy Awards, AKA the Oscars. It's Hollywood’s biggest night. Our eyes will be locked on the stars, and theirs will be gazing at the industry’s collective navel. The winners walk home with golden doorstops; the losers take comfort in knowing that the same demographic doing the voting is also responsible for letting a spin-off, of a spin-off, of a spin-off of JAG become an actual thing.

Lincoln

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By the Numbers:

  • 12: Oscar nominations
  • 89, 86: Rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and Metacritic
  • 176, 58: Millions of dollars earned at the domestic, and foreign box office
  • 83: Percent of Best Actor nominations Daniel Day-Lewis has won

Major Contender for: Best Picture, Best Director (Stephen Spielberg), Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), Best Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones), Best Original Screenplay (Tony Kushner)

Success on the Awards Circuit: More than forty awards given to Daniel Day-Lewis for his portrayal of the title role, including a Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG award. A few wins in smaller circles for Spielberg and Jones (including a SAG award for the latter).

Synopsis: Considering it’s based on the biography Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln, and the fact that it’s called Lincoln, it shouldn’t surprise you that the movie is a biopic about America’s 16th president. What might though, is that instead of a glorified recreation of Lincoln’s life from womb to tomb, the film focuses mainly on the political process, and amount of backdoor skullduggery needed to pass the Thirteenth Amendment. Lincoln himself is often pushed to the background by the astoundingly deep supporting cast, including Sally Fields, Tommy Lee Jones, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, David Strathairn, John Hawkes, and just about every TV character actor ever. The man himself is played with typical capability by Daniel Day-Lewis; that’s an understated way of saying that it’s another unbelievable performance to shore up his case as the world’s greatest living actor.

Oscar-appropriate Themes: Biopic of a great man, and a great moment in American history

Juiciest Piece of Oscar Bait: Stephen Spielberg, Daniel Day-Lewis, one of America’s greatest presidents.

Buzz Going into the Oscars: 8/10. When the nominations came out, most prognosticators wondered why the Academy didn’t save us some time, and just give everything to Lincoln the same day. I was one of them. Zero Dark Thirty got all the early awards attention, but the growing controversy that dogged it was very much to Lincoln’s benefit. Strategically absent nominations in key categories for the competition only further made the show Lincoln’s race to lose. But just as the winds were hastily blowing all the gold trophies towards Spielberg, they changed course, and started racing towards Iran, where waited Ben Affleck’s own, trendier historical drama. Now it seems like Day-Lewis is the only sure thing the movie has going for it. Argo and Lincoln are the big dogs of the night, with Affleck’s loveable St. Bernard looking just a bit more like “Best in Show.” It depends on the narrative the Academy winds up writing with the night. If the voters are feeling especially traditional, Lincoln is the safest choice. Despite the scant few wins for Spielberg as director elsewhere, his competition is too idiosyncratic to keep The Beard out of the running.

Trivia Tidbit: Only six times has the Director’s Guild of America winner not also taken home the Oscar, and Affleck’s DGA win marks only the third time the trophy holder didn’t earn an Oscar nomination for Best Director. The other two snubs were given to Ron Howard for Apollo 13 in ’95, and Spielberg himself in ’85 for The Colour Purple.

Talking Points if Your Crowd Loves it: Have the name “Daniel Day-Lewis” written on one hand, and a list of superlatives on the other. Mix and match from each palm, and you’re basically set. You can shift that praise around to just about everyone in the cast, as this is an actor’s movie first and foremost. As a big budget historical piece, the sets and costumes are worth noting, though they likely won’t attract as much attention as some of the gaudier competition. And don’t forget to mention that, despite being a history lesson about Very Serious Issues, Lincoln is actually really entertaining, as Tony Kushner’s script is among the funniest period dramas in recent memory. Brush up on your Tommy Lee Jones impression, and try to memorize a few of his southern-fried putdowns for use as needed.

Talking Points if Your Crowd Hates it: There’s playing to your audience, and then there’s pandering. It’s like Spielberg set out to make the most Oscar-friendly movie conceivable, and wouldn’t you know it, a movie that labors to satisfy a bunch of old white dudes sure features plenty of them in it. Sally Field is the only real female presence, and she’s presented as just another burden for Lincoln to bear, a loony, shrieking harpy, clawing at the insides of the one guy with the power and will to end slavery. And the ending is a complete buzzkill. It’s not enough that Spielberg makes Lincoln out to be the American Moses; he has to forcefully shoehorn in the Great Emancipator’s assassination, just in case he didn’t seem quite Messianic enough.

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