Best Original Screenplay
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal
A very tough category to call, especially since there is so little overlap between this category and its WGA equivalent. Zero Dark Thirty would have been the favorite once upon a time, but the film was not a powerhouse player within the Academy. I would also, under different circumstances, predict Moonrise Kingdom, given the sheer quality of the screenplay and the industry’s respect for Wes Anderson, but that film too lacks the necessary momentum. I think it comes down to Django Unchained or Amour, and for me, it is mostly a coin-toss between the two. Considering Amour is a lock to win Best Foreign Language film, it has the momentum needed to win. But Django Unchained has won a ton of screenplay awards this season, and is clearly a major achievement in writing that should appeal to the Academy, so I believe it ultimately has the edge.
Will and Should Win: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
Given that Argo is a lock to win Best Picture, there would be little precedent for it losing this award. Then again, the film’s failure to garner a Best Director nomination does throw all the film’s other nominations in at least a small bit of doubt. If the Academy winds up giving Lincoln the lion’s share of the awards (minus Best Picture), it is very possible Tony Kushner wins here. And if the Academy wants to consummate their love for Beasts of the Southern Wild beyond nominations, this would be its most likely win. My personal favorite script of the category, Silver Linings Playbook, is probably on the outs no matter what. In any case, Argo is the likely winner, although I will not necessarily be surprised if it loses.
Will Win: Argo, Chris Terrio
Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell
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