‘Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’ tracking to fall well short of its predecessor at the box office

Back in February of 2018, Black Panther wasn’t just a monster-sized box office success; it was an absolute juggernaut.

The Marvel Cinematic Universe blockbuster was a critical darling, and ultimately snowballed into a cultural and societal phenomenon that propelled it to dizzying heights at the box office, as well as the distinction of becoming the first superhero movie to be nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

By the time the dust had settled, the acclaimed epic had brought in $700 million from domestic theaters and an additional $646 million from overseas markets to go down as one of the highest-grossing releases in the history of cinema thanks to a cumulative total of $1.346 billion.

That puts sequel Wakanda Forever under immense pressure, then, especially given the passing of Chadwick Boseman casting a shadow over the proceedings. Don’t get us wrong, Ryan Coogler’s second installment is going to be a runaway freight train when it lands in November, but it’s project to fall substantially short of its predecessor.

As per Variety and analytics firm Cinelytic, Wakanda Forever is on course for a domestic tally of $424 million. That would still make it one of the MCU’s top performers on home soil, but it’s also close to $300 million behind the opener. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder came under fire for not hitting a billion, but if international crowds are receptive to Black Panther 2, then any domestic losses could reasonably be compensated overseas.

Either way, it’s going to be huge.