Can Donald Trump really take over the Panama Canal?

President-elect Donald Trump has sparked international tension by suggesting his incoming administration could attempt to retake control of the Panama Canal, a vital waterway that the United States transferred to Panama over two decades ago.

The Panama Canal is one of the world’s most crucial maritime passages, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through a 50-mile artificial waterway across Panama’s isthmus. Built by the United States in the early 1900s, the canal revolutionized international shipping by eliminating the need for vessels to make the lengthy and dangerous journey around South America. The U.S. maintained control of the canal and surrounding Canal Zone for most of the 20th century, treating it as U.S. territory until the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties initiated the process of transferring complete control to Panama.

This transfer was finalized on December 31, 1999, marking a significant shift in U.S.-Panama relations and Central American sovereignty. Today, the canal generates approximately one-fifth of Panama’s government revenue and serves as a crucial component of global maritime commerce, facilitating about 5% of world trade. Recent challenges, including severe droughts in 2023, have forced administrators to reduce daily ship crossings and increase transit fees, changes that caught Trump’s attention and sparked his controversial comments.

Legal and practical barriers make Trump’s Panama Canal takeover virtually impossible

From a legal standpoint, Trump’s suggested takeover of the Panama Canal faces insurmountable obstacles. The Torrijos-Carter Treaties, ratified by both nations’ governments, permanently transferred control of the canal to Panama. Any attempt to forcibly retake control would constitute a clear violation of multiple treaties, likely triggering widespread diplomatic consequences and potential military conflict. It’s no wonder the Mayor of Panama City, Mayer Mizrachi, has been quite vocal about the nonsense of Trump’s proposals.

Even if Trump wanted to pursue this course of action, he would face significant domestic legal challenges. The president lacks the unilateral authority to invalidate international treaties, and any such action would require congressional approval – something highly unlikely given the diplomatic and economic ramifications.

Furthermore, a physical takeover would be logistically impractical. Panama maintains sovereign control over the canal and its surrounding areas, with its own security forces protecting the waterway. Any military action to seize control would not only violate international law but could also disrupt global shipping, potentially causing billions in economic damage and alienating U.S. allies worldwide. In other words, if Trump attempts to seize the Panama Canal by force, he will face retaliation from China, Japan, and European potencies, who all depend on the passway to keep their economies afloat.

Panama’s conservative president, José Raúl Mulino, has already strongly rejected Trump’s suggestions, declaring that “every square meter of the canal belongs to Panama and will continue to belong” to his country. This stance, coming from a leader generally aligned with Trump on other issues, underscores the unanimous opposition such a move would face internationally and within Panama itself.

The reality is that Trump’s threats appear to be more political rhetoric than actionable policy. The complex web of international laws, treaties, and practical considerations makes any attempt to “take back” the Panama Canal virtually impossible, regardless of who occupies the White House. Instead, these comments risk damaging U.S.-Panama relations and undermining America’s credibility in Latin America just as Trump prepares to return to office.