Is the ‘Smiley Face Killer theory’ behind the streak of suspicious drownings in Chicago, Houston, and Austin?

A string of mysterious drownings in Austin, Houston, and Chicago has reignited public interest in the long-disputed “Smiley Face Killer theory.” The idea, first proposed in the early 2000s by retired NYPD detective Kevin Gannon and his team, suggests that a coordinated group of killers has been targeting young men and disposing of their bodies in waterways across the country.

A pattern or coincidence?

In a recent episode of Brian Entin Investigates, Gannon described what he believes is an active network of offenders operating in multiple U.S. cities. He told Entin, a NewsNation reporter, that his team has identified hundreds of similar cases nationwide, victims last seen leaving bars, their phones tracking toward rivers or lakes, and bodies later recovered in shallow water. Some of the sites, he said, feature graffiti of a smiley face or other recurring markings.

Gannon’s theory gained renewed traction after a series of deaths in Austin, Texas. Since 2022, at least 38 bodies have been recovered in and around Austin’s Lady Bird Lake, most of them men in their 30s or 40s, found in similar circumstances. Although residents have circulated theories of a serial killer on social media, the Austin Police have repeatedly stated there is no evidence of foul play.

Still, families of the victims remain unconvinced. Several have called for independent reviews of autopsies, alleging that injuries and toxicology reports were dismissed too quickly.

Houston families demand answers

In Houston, the debate intensified after the death of Kenneth Cutting Jr., whose body was recovered from a bayou in July 2024. His case is one of several recent recoveries from Houston’s waterways — including both men and women, contradicting Gannon’s theory — that have raised alarm among families and fueled speculation of a broader pattern. In just the past year, local outlets have reported multiple bodies pulled from Buffalo and Brays bayous, often with few public updates about the cause or manner of death.

Gannon argues that the circumstances of these deaths, including Cutting’s, mirror other cases he has studied nationwide: individuals who vanish after a night out and are later found in water, sometimes with toxicology results that don’t align with a classic drowning profile.

Local officials have pushed back. The Houston Police Department and Mayor John Whitmire have repeatedly said there is no credible evidence of serial activity, attributing the deaths to a mix of intoxication, homelessness, and accidents near the city’s extensive bayou system.

Chicago’s long history of waterway deaths

Chicago has also seen a wave of waterway recoveries that sparked similar speculation. Young men disappearing near nightlife areas and later being found in the Chicago River have fueled social-media claims of a Midwest “Smiley Face” connection.

NBC Chicago reviewed dozens of those cases in a 2023 investigation and found no definitive evidence of a network or ritual pattern. Law-enforcement officials told the outlet that while social-media theories persist, most cases are consistent with accidental drownings involving alcohol or cold-water exposure.

Law enforcement across the three cities continues to deny the existence of a serial-killer network. Yet the persistence of similar cases — and the emotional accounts of families — has kept the theory alive online.

A 2010 research brief from the Center for Homicide Research found “no consistent forensic or behavioral evidence” linking the alleged drownings, concluding that the pattern likely reflects random accidents rather than organized crime. Gannon disagrees. Gannon told Entin he believes the drownings follow a deliberate pattern, arguing that the deaths are “too systematic to be random.”