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Awards Season: An Analysis Of The Frontrunners

With the Producers Guild awards just around the corner, it’s time to take a look at where we are in the awards season at the moment. I’m extremely excited for these awards coming up on Saturday night, and you should be too, for the simple fact that nobody knows for sure what film is going to take home their top honor. As you know, the PGA’s winner automatically becomes the frontrunner for the Best Picture Oscar because they have agreed 19 out of 26 times, including the last eight years in a row (a 100% match since both started using the preferential ballot). But what film will that be this year?
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Then there’s critical darling Mad Max: Fury Road, a film that has surprised the masses by not only receiving rave reviews all around, but also by winning a multitude of Best Picture awards from major groups like the National Board of Review, the Online Film Critics Society, the Chicago Film Critics Association, and the London Film Critics Circle. The movie then continued to surprise people by nabbing ten Oscar nominations of its own, including Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Film Editing. However, with all of its praise, there are several reasons as to why this would be a complete shock to hear announced as the PGA and the Academy’s top pick.

The most obvious thing about George Miller’s action opus that is bound to hold it back is simply that it’s an action film, and that’s never been the Academy’s particular cup of tea. Quite frankly, I’m still shocked that it managed to break out of the technical categories and nab a Best Picture nomination, quite simply because I couldn’t imagine your average Oscar voter putting the film down in 1st place (to receive a Best Picture nomination, a film has to get a certain number of 1st place votes). However, it did make it and it has suddenly become a real possibility to take the Best Picture trophy for 2015.

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Getting more technical though, and it has the same exact problems that The Revenant has in that it didn’t receive a Best Cast nomination from SAG or a Best Screenplay nomination from the Academy, meaning it too would have to pull of the miraculous feat of a Braveheart/Titanic victory. However, where the film is even more hindered is in the fact that it didn’t receive any nominations for acting from the Academy, whereas The Revenant got nods for Best Actor (which it will more than likely win) and Best Supporting Actor. This is particularly troublesome because the Actors Branch, the largest branch in the Academy, can mean the difference between winning Best Picture and not winning Best Picture, so Mad Max: Fury Road getting passed over for any acting nods is certainly not going to do it any favors.

What could end up happening for the film is that it might simply end up being this year’s Gravity, where it wins Best Director and a number of technical awards, but ends up getting passed over for Best Picture. Personally, I would be happy with that as I don’t really think the film is Best Picture material, but there’s no denying the immense technical achievements that were accomplished, making it very worthy of Best Director, Best Film Editing, and a number of other below the line categories. Considering the number of roadblocks it has between it and Best Picture, Mad Max might just have to be satisfied with this as the result.


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