Predicting The 73rd Annual Golden Globes For Film

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

• Jane Fonda – Youth
• Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
• Helen Mirren – Trumbo
• Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
• Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

Far and away, Alicia Vikander’s outstanding performance in Ex Machina has been the popular choice in this category, earning awards from critics groups like Los Angeles, Chicago, D.C., Toronto, and Phoenix. Winslet, Fonda, and Mirren have won nothing, while Leigh has picked up three awards, including the National Board of Review and San Diego. When you factor in the fact that her biggest competition (Rooney Mara in Carol) has been moved to Best Actress for these awards, it looks like you have a pretty easy win for Vikander.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

• Paul Dano – Love & Mercy
• Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
• Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
• Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
• Sylvester Stallone – Creed

This is going to be one of the more interesting categories of the evening. The battle will be between Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies and Sylvester Stallone for Creed. Both have won their fair share of awards throughout the season and either of them could easily end up being the winner. When faced with the choice though, I would tip in the favor of Rylance, not only because I believe he gave a stronger performance, but because his wins came from almost entirely major groups throughout the season, including the New York Film Critic Circle, New York Film Critics Online, Boston, Toronto, Vancouver, and the National Society of Film Critics.

However, don’t count out Stallone. He has the celebrity factor on his side, and as we all know, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association LOVES their celebrities, so that could be the extra nudge he needs to get the trophy away from Rylance (an actor who doesn’t have a household name).

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)

• Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
• Amy Schumer – Trainwreck
• Melissa McCarthy – Spy
• Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van
• Lily Tomlin – Grandma

Now we come to the dreaded “Musical or Comedy” categories, ones that can be nearly impossible to predict simply because they’re usually the picks that don’t get nominated due to all of the dramatic performances. However, looking at these nominees, I feel somewhat confident in picking Jennifer Lawrence, not only because she gives a really good performance in the sub-par Joy, but also because the HFPA tends to really like her.

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)

• Christian Bale – The Big Short
• Steve Carell – The Big Short
• Matt Damon – The Martian
• Al Pacino – Danny Collins
• Mark Ruffalo – Infinitely Polar Bear

This category, on the other hand, is going to be a little harder to predict. I’d say the battle is going to be between Matt Damon for The Martian and Christian Bale for The Big Short. Both have seen their fair share of nominations throughout the season, with both earning nods from BAFTA and the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

Bale did earn a pretty big Screen Actors Guild nomination for the film, but Damon has shown up more frequently, and has even nabbed a win from the National Board of Review, so I think I’d have to go with him in the end.

Best Actress (Drama)

• Cate Blanchett – Carol
• Brie Larson – Room
• Rooney Mara – Carol
• Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
• Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

Now we return to the performances that have been getting a multitude of mentions throughout the season. From these nominees, I would have to go with Brie Larson for her brilliant performance in Room, a performance that has earned her a number of accolades from various critics groups.

That being said, you should also be on the lookout for Saoirse Ronan, who has nabbed a few victories as well for her fine performance in Brooklyn. Still, I’d be very surprised if they didn’t go with Larson, whose portrayal of a mother trying to bring up her son in a single room and eventually having to help introduce him to the world is both powerful and captivating.

Best Actor (Drama)

• Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
• Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
• Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
• Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
• Will Smith – Concussion

This is another one of those categories where the other nominees just seem like a formality at this point. Leonardo DiCaprio has been earning unending praise for his turn in Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant. It’s not so much a performance of words, but one of actions, for his character is alone much of the time throughout the two and a half hour epic.

The things his character must do to survive the harsh, unforgiving landscape of the 1820’s American Wilderness though grab the audience from the very onset of his quest for revenge and never let us go until the final frame. While DiCaprio has won two Golden Globes before, I believe that this is what will start his major award streak that will end when he accepts the Oscar on the night of February 28th.

Best Director – Motion Picture

• Todd Haynes – Carol
• Alejandro G. Inarritu – The Revenant
• George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
• Ridley Scott – The Martian
• Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

To say that there’s been a Best Director race this awards season would not be accurate, simply because George Miller has been sweeping up the majority of awards. By my count, he has 18 victories when compared with his closest competitors, Haynes and McCarthy, who have four wins apiece.

But why has Miller been winning so much? Just take a look at Mad Max: Fury Road. He’s the man who was somehow able to direct all of the sheer chaos for the endless car chase sequences. I’ve gone on record as saying that I didn’t think much of the film overall, but there’s no denying that Miller did a brilliant job of getting all of the madness on screen, and he has been justly rewarded for it. The Golden Globe he is likely to receive tonight will simply add on to his praise.

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)

• The Big Short
• Joy
• The Martian
• Spy
• Trainwreck

Here we have one of the most bizarre categories of the night, Best Picture (Musical or Comedy), a category in which three of the films aren’t really comedies (The Martian, Joy, and The Big Short), and two of which are merely masquerading as comedies (Trainwreck and Spy).

It seems the best way to find what has the best chance of winning here is to take a look at the other nominations that each film received. Joy, Trainwreck and Spy only earned additional nods in Best Actress (Musical or Comedy), while The Martian earned a nod for Best Director and Best Actor (Musical or Comedy), and The Big Short earned a nod for Best Screenplay and a pair of nods for Best Actor (Musical or Comedy).

I think it’s safe to say that it’s going to be between The Martian and The Big Short, but which one will emerge victorious? For this I’m going to have to lean towards The Martian, not only because it’s the better film, but it seems to be the more popular film, and that can mean quite a bit with the HFPA.

It earned a really big nod for Best Director here, but has also been nominated for, and in some cases won, a multitude of awards from other places, including Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay. I guess you could also throw in the benefit of it being the one good film in the category, but I think the other reasoning probably stands up a little better than that, leaving The Martian as my best guess for this evening’s winner.

Best Picture (Drama)

• Carol
• Mad Max: Fury Road
• The Revenant
• Room
• Spotlight

At last we come to the biggest category of the evening, Best Picture (Drama). I don’t think I have to tell you that Spotlight has been decimating the critics’ awards throughout the season, earning a whopping 19 Best Picture wins. This, and this alone, forces me to say that Tom McCarthy’s mediocre journalist drama is going to take the top prize.

As you can probably tell, I was not a fan of the film, and have not been able to figure out why it has been garnering such undeserved acclaim. It comes off as nothing more than a flat procedural that has characters perfunctorily going from spot to spot, spouting dialogue, and slowly moving the progress of their investigation forward until it finally comes to an end, with the film never feeling like it truly comes to life, despite the efforts of a top-notch ensemble.

Out of these five, Inarittu’s The Revenant would be the most deserving winner, but unless the HFPA feels like going completely against the grain, then that’s not going to happen. In fact, the only film that has a chance to take down Spotlight is George Miller’s action opus Mad Max: Fury Road, which surprised a lot of people by winning several Best Picture awards of its own, including victories from the National Board of Review and the Online Film Critics Society.

I wouldn’t say Carol has no chance, as it did win Best Picture from the New York Film Critics Circle and Toronto, but it just hasn’t been nearly as popular as the other two. There’s also the fact that, even though all of the films nominated did receive additional major nominations, Spotlight is the only one that got nods for Picture, Director, and Screenplay, showing that all signs are unfortunately pointing right at its victory.

So, there you have my picks for the film categories for The 73rd Annual Golden Globe Awards. Do you agree with these choices? Who do you think will be tonight’s big winners? Let us know in the comments, and be sure to join us for a live-blogging of tonight’s winners starting at 8pm (EST).