Barbie is the undisputed movie of 2023. It’s the highest-grossing movie of the year by some distance, was a critical darling, and has clearly embedded itself into popular culture. That success looks as if it’ll translate into awards season glory, with Barbie having picked up nine Golden Globe nominations.
But let’s look a little further into the future, to the 96th Academy Awards on Mar. 10, 2024. Barbie is certain to pick up several nominations, so let’s predict which statuettes our new doll queen is going to toss into her pink convertible and speed away into the sunset with.
So here’s our list, from outside bets to pretty much a lock:
10. Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Margot Robbie is the star of the show, but Barbie was full of great performances from the other women in the cast. Our pick of the bunch would be America Ferrera’s Gloria, who helped ground the movie and had great chemistry with Ariana Greenblatt as her daughter Sasha.
But this will be a fiercely contended category this year, and while Ferrera was great we suspect she’ll be overlooked.
9. Best Actress in a Leading Role
Margot Robbie is very likely to get a nod here, but sadly we don’t see her on stage collecting the Oscar. She made playing Barbie look easy, but fleshing out a literal doll with that much complexity and depth requires some serious performance chops, not to mention being hilarious throughout. But, as great as Robbie was, she’s up against Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon, who we couldn’t take our eyes off.
8. Best Actor in a Supporting Role
I think Ryan Gosling deserves a straight-up Best Actor in a Leading Role nomination, but he’s in the “supporting” category for the Golden Globes so probably will be for the Oscars too. Gosling’s goofy, egotistical (sorta) villain was my favorite performance in Barbie – and he committed to it completely.
That said, he’ll probably be up against Robert DeNiro for Killers of the Flower Moon and Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer. The Academy tends not to reward comedy performances so, sadly, even though he’s a ten, a nomination will probably have to be Kenough.
7. Best Picture
Barbie has more of a chance of winning the top category than you might assume. It’s a deeply impressive movie in every single aspect and would be considered a populist choice after years of arthouse/indie winners. All that said we think 2024 is a two-horse race between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, so expect one of them to grab the big prize.
That said, previous Academy Awards prove the Academy is willing to confound expectations, with few predicting that Everything Everywhere All at Once would triumph in 2022. So do not count out Barbie here.
6. Best Director
It’s time to delve into the murky world of Oscar politics. Greta Gerwig would be a deserved winner of this year’s Best Director award, though she’s up against two heavyweights who’ve yet to grab this prestigious gong: Christopher Nolan and Martin Scorsese.
That, combined with the fact that two women, Chloé Zhao and Jane Campion won in 2020 and 2021 respectively, may mean Gerwig will be overlooked in favor of finally giving Scorsese the ultimate directorial recognition at the grand old age of 81. We want to underline it isn’t fair that two women recently winning the award means Gerwig’s chances are reduced, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles when it comes to the Oscars.
5. Makeup and Hairstyling
We’re now into much more comfortable territory for Barbie. As fitting for a Barbie movie there were a range of stunning hairstyles and make-up jobs across the movie courtesy of Ivana Primorac. This managed to translate the “Barbie” look into reality: whether it be the immaculate default Barbie of the opening scenes or Kate McKinnon’s “Weird Barbie”.
Perhaps Maestro may be in with a chance, but the lingering controversy about that fake nose may sink it.
4. Costume Design
Once again Barbie should be in its element here. The costume design department, led by Jacqueline Durran, had to figure out how to translate iconic pieces of doll-sized clothing into real costumes. It’s safe to say they succeeded beyond everyone’s wildest dreams.
The incredible dayglo rollerblading outfits that Barbie and Ken wear on their first foray into the real world are worthy of the award alone, let alone Ken’s incredible white coat in later scenes. Feels like a lock to us.
3. Original Screenplay
Barbie is the odds-on favorite here as its main rivals, Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer, are both adapted from non-fiction books. The only competitors in this category are May December and Anatomy of a Fall, but we think Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach have this in the bag. Barbie has a killer screenplay and we expect to see it win here.
2. Production Design
This is a competitive category, but one area in which Barbie truly excelled. Production designer Sarah Greenwood and set decorator Katie Spencer succeeded beyond everyone’s wildest dreams in bringing Barbieland to life, be it the life-size versions of Barbie’s dreamhouse (and its later Ken-ized version), the expressionist and surreal Mattel offices or the amazing beach. Napoleon and Poor Things may be in contention, but we have a feeling this is Barbie‘s category to lose.
1. Best Original Song
Barbie is up for no less than three Golden Globes for Best Original Song: for “Dance the Night”, “What Was I Made For?” and “I’m Just Ken”. We guarantee that will be reflected when the Oscar nominations drop, likely leading to a three-song Barbie medley being performed on the night. Exactly which of these songs will take the award is a little unclear, though the barnstorming “I’m Just Ken” was such a massive viral hit we’re tipping that.