The murky world of box office projections is always little more than an educated guessing game until opening weekend, but at this rate The Marvels will still be lucky if it even manages to match the monstrous debut of Five Nights at Freddy’s, never mind exceed it.
Of course, the two projects couldn’t be more different considering one is the blockbuster sequel to a $1.1 billion box office sensation that’s part of the most lucrative franchise in the history of cinema, whereas the other is a modestly-budgeted horror adapted from a video game. And yet, it would still be a huge blow for the Marvel Cinematic Universe were its final release of 2023 to fall short.
For one thing, Five Nights at Freddy’s has been taking an absolute pounding from critics to rank as the worst-reviewed console-to-screen release in seven years, but it nonetheless conspired to haul in $78 million in its first frame thanks to its built-in audience and brand recognition.
On the other hand, The Marvels is the follow-up to the lowest-rated entry in the MCU’s 31-film back catalogue when it comes to Rotten Tomatoes audience approval ratings, and the sequel has been receiving the same sort of backlash and criticism as its predecessor.
There’s also the small matter of financial investment, with the estimated $219 million price tag making Brie Larson’s second headline outing 11 times more expensive than Five Nights at Freddy’s, and even at the highest end of its most recent forecasts Nia DaCosta’s cosmic caper is only on track to hit $80 million at most following its arrival.
We’ve seen Sound of Freedom out-earn Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny already this year, so don’t be surprised if The Marvels falls short of FNaF on the domestic front, which would be another big blow for the MCU.