The Golden Globe nominations have finally descended upon the world, offering up a glimpse of the road ahead to the 97th Academy Awards, where the likes of Anora, The Brutalist, and A Real Pain will likely prove to be the most prominent contenders this time around.
But, as was the case during the previous awards season, the majority of public attention seems to be on the film that the Academy and the public both agree on in terms of quality. Last year it was Barbie and Oppenheimer, and this year it’s Wicked, with the Oz-inspired musical nabbing nominations for Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Leading Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, and Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy. Fans haven’t been this happy since roughly two and a half weeks ago, when Wicked released in cinemas.
The relative focus on Grande is no surprise, given how the actress not only has a swathe of fans from her music career, but also because she’s been touted as a serious contender for the Supporting Actress Oscar for some time now, making this nomination extra-cathartic for the Wicked fans.
Of course, those same fans would be wise to celebrate these nominations while they can, because they may not have as much luck once the ceremony rolls around. It has fantastic odds in the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category, but Erivo will be going up against such contenders as Mikey Madison (Anora), Zendaya (Challengers), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez). The Elphaba actress was revelatory, to be sure, but this isn’t a category that Wicked can bank on.
Grande only has slightly better odds in terms of competition, but that doesn’t mean much when your key obstacles to success are Margaret Qualley (The Substance) and Felicity Jones (The Brutalist).
As for the Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy category, this is where Wicked should struggle the most. It’s true that the National Board of Review named it as the best film of 2024, and it’s also true that a beefy campaign is in store for Wicked, but the National Board of Review named Top Gun: Maverick as the best film of 2022, and quite consistently names films that, rightly or wrongly, get snubbed in the awards circuit.
And at the end of the day, Wicked will be going toe-to-toe with Anora, Challengers, A Real Pain, and The Substance, all of which are a firm cut above Jon M. Chu’s event flick. That’s not to say that Wicked doesn’t deserve to stand among its fellow nominees, of course, but the merits of its competition need to considered in this equation, and justice would therefore dictate that the statuette goes to one of Wicked‘s opponents.
But the cinematic awards season is nothing if not an unending vortex of drama, controversy, upsets, and other unexpected developments, so maybe Wicked will end up sweeping its respective categories and go on to lead the Oscars race in nominations. It would certainly result in higher viewership for the biggest night in film, after all…