11M Russian death certificates reportedly leaked, 412,576 tied to Ukraine. But Putin allegedly won’t ‘settle for anything less than everything he wants’

A massive data breach has exposed more than 11 million Russian death certificates, and the records suggest more than 400,000 Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began nearly five years ago, as reported by the Guardian. The data, which can’t be verified, comes from the state statistics agency Rosstat.

According to the reported records, 412,576 certificates specifically link the deaths to the war through official cause-of-death codes or notes about military operations. The files were obtained by the Belarusian opposition-linked hacker group Cyber Partisans and the Ukrainian hacking collective Silent Crow, which announced the breach on November 1 and published the files over the weekend. Rosstat said a hack occurred but denied that any sensitive information was taken.

The figures are unlikely to push Moscow toward a peace deal, according to a person familiar with Vladimir Putin’s thinking, who suggested the scale of the losses might make him more determined. “Putin understands these numbers, and for him to now settle for anything less than everything he wants would feel like a betrayal of himself and the people,” the person said.

The real number may be even higher

The leaked dataset includes details about the deceased, including their age, where they lived, and where they died. Janis Kluge, head of the Russia and Eurasia division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said there is often a delay of about six months between a death and its entry into official records. Because of this, he said the real number of killed Russian soldiers is likely closer to 500,000.

Kluge described the data as “very rich” and said it is the largest leak of information on Russian casualties seen so far. He added that the numbers in many months of late 2024 and 2025 were above 15,000 per month. “That’s 500 a day, above 500 a day. Certainly shocking,” he said.

The data also shows the losses are not shared equally across Russia. In remote, poorer regions like Buryatia, Tuva, and Zabaykalsky Krai, war-related deaths made up about a third of all deaths among men ages 18 to 49 from the start of the invasion through mid-2024. In major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg, that figure was only about 10%.

In less than five years, the number of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine has exceeded the combined death toll from all Soviet and Russian wars between the end of World War II and the start of this invasion by more than eightfold. The leak arrives months after Putin’s claim the war was ending.

Senior negotiators from both sides are scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday for US-brokered peace talks, which will include Donald Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The talks come as the Pentagon has reportedly urged allies to use softer language about Putin. Witkoff said the talks would focus on “post-war security arrangement, de-escalation” and humanitarian issues. Neither Putin nor Volodymyr Zelenskyy will attend.