Donald Trump‘s needless, destructive, and chaotic war against Iran has thrown a Molotov cocktail into the global financial markets. Trump appeared to believe that Iran would be a repeat of Venezuela: a decapitation strike against a leader, followed by the nation meekly submitting to the United States.
But, in a stunning geopolitical surprise, it turns out that Iran is NOT exactly like Venezuela in every single way. In fact, Iran had been preparing for this exact situation for literally decades, had huge supplies of munitions, and had the winning card of the Strait of Hormuz hidden up their sleeve.
Iran has now closed this crucial shipping route to everyone except its allies, with their Houthi allies apparently about to do the same for Red Sea shipping. This situation has sent the price of oil skyrocketing (as of writing, it’s at $116 a barrel). So, panic stations, right?
Well, actually, if you’re Donald Trump, everything is actually fine. Better than fine! In fact, the financial markets have never been better! Speaking at the FII Priority Summit over the weekend, he said:
Trump: "I thought we would see a bigger drop in stock. Hasn't been that bad. It's sort of crazy. I hit 50,000 on the Dow."
— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) March 29, 2026
($4.8 trillion wiped from the S&P 500 since the Iran war began.)
pic.twitter.com/0BolHjHO2o
“I thought we would see a bigger drop in stock. Hasn’t been that bad. It’s sort of crazy. I hit 50,000 on the Dow.”
As pointed out above, reality is significantly less rosy. $4.8 trillion has been erased from the S&P 500. And, since a high in early February, the Dow has been significantly down ever since Trump began his war.
“My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran”
Don’t panic, noted brain genius Donald Trump has a solution. Speaking to The Financial Times yesterday, Trump explained, “My favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran“, dismissing any critics of that plan as “stupid people”. So simple! Just take the oil!
The Guardian quotes Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozharkeskaya (who I’m just going to assume has a firmer grasp of economic reality than Trump), who sounds much more pessimistic:
“There are bets that crude could rise to $150 and even to the $200 per barrel level if the war doesn’t end quickly. I believe that demand would be heavily hit if prices go that high. Above $120-130 per barrel, global recession odds would take the upper hand and tame upside pressure.”
Oil at that price would be an international crisis, and no amount of blustering or denial from Trump would get around cold, hard reality. For Americans, it would mean massive price rises for pretty much every product, and some difficult household decisions when it comes to budgeting.
If there’s a silver lining, it’s that this economic misery will come right before the critical November midterms. Trump is already widely forecast to take a beating in these elections, but the economy’s implosion isn’t exactly going to help his prospects.
All of which means Trump will desperately be looking for an off-ramp to the war he started, perhaps indicated by his repeatedly declaring victory even as Iran bombards US bases with missiles. There’s no good route out of the mess he’s made for himself, but just remember: he won’t personally suffer. You will.
Published: Mar 30, 2026 03:25 am