Robert Downey Jr. now has one less obstacle on his road to redemption after leaving Marvel high and dry

The Best Supporting Actor race is arguably the fiercest of this Awards season. So many incredible performances drawn from alluring real-life narratives, not least of which is Robert Downey Jr.‘s. Following the Oppenheimer actor’s Golden Globe win and the announcement of the SAG Awards nominees, it’s looking more and more likely that he will get his triumphant finale.

A fantastic character actor whose career has been monopolized by an increasingly one-note role in an entropic and sanitized sprawling franchise makes his big comeback to critically-acclaimed cinema with a performance no one saw coming in one of the biggest films of the year. It’s hard not to see the appeal of this particular redemption arc, with the Oscar as the vindicating cherry on top.

Downey’s biggest threat seems to be losing steam

For a while there, there was one other actor’s story that seemed even more exceptional than RDJ’s. Charles Melton, who gained attention for playing a stand-offish jock in the CW’s quizzically outrageous teen show Riverdale, stunned critics and viewers alike in a transformative display as a victim of grooming in Todd Haynes’ May December. What’s a better headline than Tony Stark winning an Oscar? Reggie Mantle winning one.

Melton collected wins at a number of different Critics Associations awards, including two of the four major ones — the New York Film Critics Circle, and the National Society of Film Critics. He was also named Best Supporting Performance at the Gotham Awards. Things were looking up for the 33-year-old, until the BAFTA nominees were shared. RDJ was featured, but Melton didn’t even make the longlist.

Soon after, the May December actor watched from the dinner table at the Beverly Hilton as Downey picked up the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Male Actor in a Film. A few days later, Melton was also shunned from the SAG Awards, not even receiving as much as a nomination. The latter snubbing was a particularly big blow to his Oscar chances, considering the significant overlap between the SAG Awards voting body and that of the Academy.

With a few days to go until the Oscars nominations are revealed, and a couple more months left until the ceremony, it is now looking less and less likely that Melton’s Riverdale underdog success story will beat out Downey’s big comeback to the world of “real” cinema.

Although it would be a welcome change to see such an unexpected, young talent win a prize that seems so often reserved for the veterans, there’s something undeniably remarkable about Downey’s multiple-decade-long trajectory that has culminated in a fantastic scene-stealing outing as Cillian Murphy’s antagonist in the impressive Oppenheimer. Either would make worthy winners, but it’s disappointing that Melton is now tracking so far behind. Let’s hope he at least makes it into the group of nominees when they’re announced on Jan. 23.