To the relief of just about everyone (except, notably, the Trump campaign), Joe Biden is now consigned to the dustbin of history. Don’t let the bin lid bonk your noggin on the way down, Joe! Now all eyes have turned to the presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. Destiny has come knocking on her door, but can she defeat an ascendant and (apparently literally) bulletproof Donald Trump?
How popular is Kamala?
Harris was a candidate in the 2020 Democratic Party primary, having teased her ambitions since 2016. Soon after announcing she received a promising amount of donations. She stumbled when she was caught up in the Jussie Smollett hate crime hoax, but bounced back in debates, memorably laying into her then-opponent Joe Biden for his past work with segregationist Senators.
After this high point campaign began to falter. Her fundraising began to dry up and polling didn’t improve, not helped by reports of rifts within her campaign. Citing a lack of funding she withdrew her candidacy in Dec. 2019, meaning she wasn’t on the ballot for the primaries and so didn’t receive any delegates.
Since being named Vice President, Harris hasn’t been a particularly popular figure. She’s considered to be something of a political lightweight, a middling public speaker, and hasn’t leveraged her position to enact much change. As per fivethirtyeight.com, the polling on “Do Americans approve or disapprove of Kamala Harris?” has remained fairly static for the last two years, with around half of voters disapproving of her and a minority approving.
Ordinarily, this wouldn’t exactly bode well for a Presidential candidate. Kamala has one botched election campaign under her belt, a poor record in government, and is unpopular with voters. But then, this isn’t an ordinary election.
But can she win?
Kamala Harris has one huge thing going for her: she’s not Donald Trump. For many voters, Trump is politically radioactive and they wouldn’t ever dream of voting for him. If Biden had stayed in turnout amongst those never-Trump voters would have been suppressed, as it’s difficult to summon up much passion for a borderline coherent shambling zombie of a candidate.
There was also little enthusiasm for months of two old men angrily mumbling to each other about their golf handicap, so if nothing else Harris entering the race puts a clear distinction between the two candidates. One is an educated, well-spoken, Black woman with a record of basically competent (if uninspiring) politics and the other is… well… Donald Trump.
The Trump campaign has been riding high for weeks, as they were able to accurately and truthfully argue that Joe Biden is incapable of being President for four more years. That strategy has now backfired, as everything Trump was saying about Biden’s age disqualifying him from the position now very much applies to Trump himself.
You might argue that Harris v Trump runs the risk of a re-run of 2016. After all, if Trump can demolish one “sensible” centrist female Democrat why not another? Fortunately, Harris doesn’t have as much baggage as Clinton did, though we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Republicans bust out some greatest hits from the last decade. This may well end up playing in Harris’ favor, as the inevitable misogyny and racism heading her way is going to expose MAGA Republicans as the repellent little freaks they are.
In addition, her lack of direct involvement in Biden’s more unpopular and unsuccessful policies and positions allows her to position herself as a change rather than continuity candidate. Trump will of course seek to paint her as Biden’s stooge and successor, so distinguishing herself from Biden early on is crucial to victory.
The election date may already be in sight, but a lot can (and will!) happen between now and then. Predicting the result to any degree of accuracy is foolish, but the Democrats’ chances have now inarguably improved now that they’ve ditched the millstone that is Joe Biden. Whether America will vote for a Black woman president remains to be seen, though the runaway juggernaut that is the Trump train finally faces a genuine obstacle in its path to victory.
Fingers crossed everyone, because the next few months will be squeaky bum time.
Published: Jul 22, 2024 07:31 am