Donald Trump faces a tough challenge this November, with voters already heading to polls to participate in the 2024 presidential election. And going up against the lively and frequently-memed Kamala Harris instead of a declining Joe Biden makes securing one key demographic that much harder.
Current data indicates that Trump is cratering with white women, doing six points worse in Oct. 2024 than he was in Nov. 2020. CNN’s senior data reported Harry Enten explained that Trump’s margin had fallen from seven points to one, pointing to increased Harris support from that demographic.
One might not assume this camp is of the utmost importance to Trump, given all the groping accusations made against him and his documented misogyny. Conversely, it’s an invaluable group for his campaign. He still leads in the demographic by a single point, but the advantage is waning rapidly with three weeks to go.
47 percent of white women voted for Trump in 2016, compared to 45 for Clinton according to the Pew Research Center. They were significantly more pro-Trump than non-white women, with the overall tally from all women said to be 39 percent in his favor. Therefore, white women accounted for a solid chunk of his election-winning votes.
CNN also broke down white women’s likely share of votes in the election: white women make up 36 percent, white men 34, women of color 16, and men of color 15. “White women make up the plurality of the electorate,” Enten noted.
“When we’re talking about five, six seven, point shifts in Kamala Harris’ direction we’re talking about a major part of the electorate, and that can actually move the overall electorate more than ginormous shift among a considerably smaller part of the electorate,” he continued, referring Trump’s gains with black men and women.
Reasons for the 2024 change in the tide could come down to several factors. Trump’s many alleged sexual assaults were public in 2016 when he won the election, so the fallout of recent threats against safe and legal abortion in some states as well as Harris being a female candidate are increasing factors.
The report also tapped into how abortion is a top voting issue in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where over 80 percent of voters are white. On average 27 percent of women in these states said abortion was their top voting issue, as opposed to 7 percent of men.
“I think what we’re talking about here is after Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, white women in the suburban areas, in these key battleground states, have very much turned against Republicans,” Enten concluded. One could also argue that Harris appeals to moderate swing voters, being someone whose politics and career have leaned towards centrism
These numbers come at a difficult time for Trump, who on Oct. 14 went viral for a strange Pennsylvania rally where he appeared out of sorts, awkwardly dancing to music on stage for nearly half an hour while onlookers stood by confused. Should he continue to draw concern in key states, who knows how many more points he’ll drop?
Published: Oct 16, 2024 07:19 am