US intelligence has found that the Iranian government is not close to collapsing, which directly contradicts President Donald Trump‘s repeated claims that the ongoing war has been “won.” At a Republican retreat in Miami, he said the war was “won in many ways.”
According to Reuters, the most recent intelligence report was completed just days ago, and sources familiar with it say there is a “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse. Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and still has control over the population.
While Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of top military officials were reportedly killed on the first day of the conflict, his son Mojtaba Khamenei has already taken his place and has shown no signs of negotiating a surrender. This makes Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender” appear far from reality.
The growing costs of the Iran war show this conflict is far from over
Defense Secretary Hegseth said on Tuesday, “It’s not protracted. We’re not allowing mission creep. The president has set a very specific mission to accomplish, and our job is to unrelentingly deliver that.”
However, eleven days into the war, a longer conflict looks increasingly likely. The US has been relying partly on Iranian Kurdish militias based in Iraq to help bring down the regime, but intelligence reports are skeptical, noting these groups are significantly short on both weapons and manpower.
The human cost of the war is also growing. An attack killed six US service members, and dozens of others suffered traumatic brain injuries, memory loss, and other “urgent” health issues, requiring care at Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany. Meanwhile, Iran recently used Lego to mock Donald Trump in a move that drew widespread attention online.
The financial cost is also staggering. The first week of the war alone cost US taxpayers $11.3 billion, according to the Pentagon. A preliminary military investigation found that part of that spending covered the bombing of an Iranian girls’ school, which killed over 175 people, most of them children.
Trump initially blamed Iran for the school bombing but later backtracked, saying on Monday, “Whatever the report shows, I’m okay with that.” As the war dominates political debate, some within Trump’s circle are also pushing back on other policies, with one Trump aide urging Republicans to soften mass deportation efforts as pressure mounts on multiple fronts.
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency have both declined to comment on these developments. With casualties rising and no clear exit strategy in sight, questions about the war’s ultimate goal are becoming harder to ignore.
Published: Mar 12, 2026 10:41 am