Former national security adviser John Bolton has praised Donald Trump’s recent strikes on Iran as “the most consequential decision” of his presidency. However, the statement came with a terrifying warning: a power vacuum is now a huge risk, potentially leading to “a lot of turmoil, a lot of bloodshed.” Bolton thinks Trump might not have fully prepared for the incredibly complex aftermath.
Bolton is really worried that Trump and his team acted impulsively without truly understanding what would happen next. He’s said that Trump doesn’t “particularly think strategically” and often doesn’t plan beyond the initial action.
While Bolton is glad Trump finally moved towards regime change, he’s concerned that the administration hasn’t thought through the consequences or consulted adequately with the Iranian opposition on the ground.
An immediate and concerning risk Bolton pointed out is the potential for chaos in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has threatened to shut down this vital waterway, which is a major chokepoint for about 20 percent of the world’s global oil supply. If Iran mines the Strait, it would be a dangerous and time-consuming operation to clear them. Any drone attacks will also cause ships to reroute, pausing oil flow, and raising prices, which is a problem for Trump’s affordability message.
Trump’s lack of foresight is hardly news
Bolton also highlighted Trump’s unpredictable nature, stating that “he can swing wildly on a given issue in the course of a day.” Bolton noted that Trump has clearly shifted from his initial stance in his first term all the way to regime change. There’s always a possibility “he could swing back.” This lack of consistent, long-term strategic thinking means there’s no clear path forward, no outlined objectives, no thought of risks, contingencies, or backup plans.
A major concern for Bolton is the lack of engagement with the Iranian opposition, which is widespread, largely spontaneous, and lacking a unified leadership structure. For any regime change to be successful, you need an opposition that can encourage defections from within the regime, including colonels and generals from the conventional military, and even some figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is a key element to a smooth transition
Ultimately, the full consequences of Trump’s actions are still unknown, and the risk of increased bloodshed remains high. Bolton noted that it’s unclear if voters will credit Trump for the outcome in Iran or if they’ll see it as another foreign policy move that distracts from domestic issues.
Published: Mar 2, 2026 08:52 am