‘Rise up, oil, from your knees!’: Putin may mourn Khamenei, but Russia is excited about the strikes’ impact on oil prices

Russia is showing a truly wild, split reaction to the latest escalation in the Middle East. President Vladimir Putin came out with a somber message condemning the US-Israel strikes as a “cynical violation of all norms,” and mourning the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Meanwhile, other powerful figures in Moscow are practically cheering about the potential for massive oil price hikes. 

With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, this could be a potential windfall for Russia’s war chest. For those who aren’t familiar, this is a super-narrow waterway that’s a crucial choke point for tankers carrying oil and liquefied natural gas out of the Persian Gulf. Per Politico, it’s causing massive speculation that global crude prices could skyrocket, which would be a huge boost to Russian revenues.

Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev wasn’t shy about his excitement, gloating on X recently that “$100+ oil per barrel soon.” Right now, Brent crude is sitting around $73 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate is at about $67, so hitting $100 would be a pretty dramatic jump. 

Well, business dealings have been running politics for a bit

It’s not just the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump has also taken control of Venezuela’s oil, which means major importers like India and China might have to look elsewhere for their crude supplies. Guess who’s waiting with open arms? Russia, of course. As they head into their fifth year of war with Ukraine, this could funnel even more money into Moscow’s coffers.

Prominent Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov made it clear on his show, stating, “For our budget [the attack on Iran] is a big plus.” He even went further, saying, “If Trump strikes Iranian oil fields, then, as unfortunate as it sounds, we [Russia] would become one of the few remaining [oil] producing countries.” He concluded that Russia is “gaining a trump card in this complex game,” which really tells you where their priorities lie.

The sentiment is even more direct on the ground, or rather, on Telegram. One military blogger on the pro-Kremlin channel MIG Rossii, which has hundreds of thousands of users, posted a truly blunt message. It read, “Rise up, oil, from your knees!” complete with a prayer-hands emoji. 

Despite all this internal jubilation, the official word from Russia is one of concern. Aside from Putin’s statement of condolences, Russia’s foreign ministry also released a statement, reiterating its call to end the fighting. They warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to “significant disbalance on the global oil and gas markets.” 

It’s an interesting contrast, isn’t it? One minute they’re warning of market imbalance, the next they’re celebrating the potential profits. It highlights the complex and often contradictory nature of international relations.