The world just lost its final nuclear safety net

The world just lost its final major nuclear safety net, as the New START treaty, the last remaining arms control agreement between Russia and the United States, officially expired. For those who haven’t been keeping track, New START was a critical agreement that set clear limits on how many missiles, launchers, and strategic warheads both Washington and Moscow could maintain. 

The treaty was essentially the bedrock of non-proliferation between the two biggest nuclear powers on the planet. Now, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, the agreement ceased to have any effect at the close of business on Thursday. It’s incredibly frustrating because this treaty didn’t just vanish overnight; Russia claims they tried to save it, but the United States essentially ghosted them.

According to Reuters, the Kremlin had suggested a voluntary, one-year extension of the agreement’s terms. This extension wouldn’t have solved the long-term problems, but it would have bought the two sides precious time to sit down and hash out a successor treaty, preventing the possibility of a new arms race. Russia says the United States never formally responded to that proposal. 

The Trump Administration has a very interesting approach to world peace

Kremlin spokesman Peskov was clear that Moscow views the expiration “negatively” and expressed deep regret over the situation. This matter is clearly a high priority in Moscow, as it even came up in a conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping just the day before the treaty lapsed.

So, what happens now that the treaty is officially dead? That’s the billion-dollar question, and frankly, nobody knows. Peskov noted that “What happens next depends on how events unfold.” While that sounds ominous, Russia is trying to project an image of responsibility. Peskov promised that the Russian Federation will continue to maintain a “responsible and attentive approach” to the entire issue of strategic stability in the nuclear field.

However, there’s a huge caveat there that we can’t ignore. He immediately followed that promise by saying that Russia will, “as always, be guided first and foremost by its national interests,” a view echoed by a close ally of Putin recently, sparking fears of WW3. When you combine the loss of the treaty, the lack of communication, and a clear statement about national interest, it doesn’t exactly instill confidence that we’re headed toward a safer world.

This situation puts immense pressure on President Trump’s administration to figure out a new framework, and fast. Without New START, there are no verification mechanisms and no agreed-upon caps, meaning the world is now operating in a complete nuclear information vacuum between the two largest arsenals. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where this doesn’t lead to increased tension and uncertainty.