The UFC’s heavyweight champion and consensus greatest mixed martial artist of all time, Jon “Bones” Jones, hasn’t fought in over a year. So, when will he step back inside the Octagon to defend his title?
The short answer is… who knows? But, we can investigate his timeline by noting why he fell out of his last contest and what’s gone on since from a recovery standpoint.
Jones triumphantly returned to the UFC in March 2023 after a three-year hiatus from the sport. He had left his home at light heavyweight to pursue the promotion’s flagship belt — heavyweight’s gold. And he needed less than half a round to secure it when he submitted Ciryl Gane at UFC 285.
Because Francis Ngannou parted ways with the organization, the heavyweight title was left vacant and Jones claimed it. Then, not too long after, Bones was paired up with ex-heavyweight king Stipe Miocic for his first title defense.
Billed as a battle between MMA’s GOAT and the division’s GOAT, Jones and Miocic were set to wage war at UFC 295 in November 2023. But, in late October, UFC CEO Dana White announced Jones had suffered an injury while training for the affair, and the fight was off. He shared video footage of Bones sustaining a torn pectoral tendon while wrestling with a partner.
The tendon had been torn off the bone, and his pec needed surgery. Bones immediately underwent the knife. In January, Bones posted a video on social media revealing that he had just wrapped up another surgery to shave down bone spurs on his elbow. The 10-week recovery window fit into his timeline for his pec, so Jones said it was an ideal time to deal with the nagging injury.
Jones hasn’t publicly mentioned any healing setbacks. He tweeted in January that his pec was “progressing in an amazing way.” When Bones’ injury was revealed, White said Jones would “be out” for eight months — but, it was unclear if he meant that Jones was unable to train with his pec for eight months, or if that’s how long he’d need before fighting again.
Remember, Jones would need to undergo a training camp ahead of his next fight, which is typically around three months. Orthopedic surgeon Dr. David Abbasi said on social media that he believed Jones’ pec could fully recover within four to six months. Considering Jones doesn’t do much media, there hasn’t been an update on Bones’ timeframe since.
Okay, let’s do some math. Jones had surgery on his pec in late October, and at the time of this writing, it’s mid-April. So, that’s about six months. And, according to when he shared the video, Jones fixed his elbow on January 8. His elbow should be ready to go within the next week or two if it’s not already healed.
All in all, Jones is likely coming to the end of his recovery period within the next month or two, which will bring us to June. Then, let’s assume he’ll want some time back in the gym as a fully functioning athlete before beginning a training camp.
So, from my estimation, it’s feasible that the heavyweight champion returns in the third quarter of 2024 — either October, November, or December.
Who will Jon Jones fight next?
Another great question, right? And this one is hotly debated in the mixed martial arts community. There are two combatants on a collision course with Bones: Miocic and current interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall.
After Jones was pulled from UFC 295, Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich rose to the occasion and headlined the Madison Square Garden event. Their bout was for the interim belt, and the Englishman earned it via first-round KO.
Typically a champion and interim champion will slug it out next to determine the division’s undisputed ruler. And that’s exactly what Aspinall wants — he’s been campaigning to meet Jones inside the cage ever since he starched Pavlovich.
But, this situation is anything but typical.
To this point, it appears all three parties — Jones, Miocic, and the UFC — want that fight to go down first. Miocic decided not to compete at UFC 295 in anticipation of fighting Jones for the belt when he returned. White has said on several occasions it was the fight to make, and he hasn’t given any indication of veering away from that line of thinking. After all, it’s a legacy match.
Bones has made it clear he’s got his eyes set on Miocic as well, and he’s afforded Aspinall very little attention.
From my vantage point, I see the UFC running what was supposed to happen last year and we’ll see Jones and Miocic duking it out during the promotion’s annual event in New York City in November. And for Aspinall? That’s another question.