‘Oppenheimer’ won’t be dropping any bombs on ‘Barbie,’ box office projections suggest

New box office forecasts for July suggest that Greta Gerwig’s Barbie will win the July 21–23 weekend over Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer. This makes sense, since one seems like a fun PG-13 romp that subversively critiques gender roles and the other is a three-hour, R-rated accounting of one of the worst things that’s ever happened. To be clear, we think both films look really good; we’re just scratching our heads over why this wasn’t considered a foregone conclusion weeks ago.

Per The Hollywood Reporter, sources with access to various polling services are predicting Barbie comes out on top. And those sources even suggested the possibility that Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part 1, which opens the weekend prior, could come in second after Barbie, leaving Nolan’s film to open in third place.

An interesting wrinkle here is that Barbie is backed by Warner Bros. Discovery, the company that Nolan abandoned after decades of making hits for them because of their decision to release all their 2021 movies on the formerly named HBO Max on the same day the films dropped in theaters.

It was a shameless attempt by Warner Bros. to make people sign up for the streaming service, but the thing that really rubbed Nolan the wrong way is that the company didn’t even tell the filmmakers ahead of time. Apparently, all those directors found out from a glorified press release along with everyone else. Thus, Nolan decamped for Universal Pictures to make Oppenheimer.

However, the new regime at Warner Bros. wants Nolan back, according to Variety. WB Film Group chief Michael De Luca said they are “hoping” to have the filmmaker return after his brief hiatus with Universal, adding that the reconciliation isn’t just pie-in-the-sky, but something that could actually happen. This leads many to wonder why they are releasing Barbie opposite Oppenheimer, which admittedly is a strange way to curry favor.

What’s our forecast? That the opening weekend of Oppenheimer matters far less than the opening weekend of Barbie. Hard-hitting dramas tailored for adults typically rely on their legs at the box office rather than how much they smash the opening weekend. People tend to forget that in an era of superhero blockbusters that are instantly labeled an embarrassment if they open below $80 or $90 million domestically.

Beyond that, Oppenheimer was designed to be seen in an IMAX theater — not an AMC screen that’s extra big and wears the IMAX label, but a real, four-story-tall IMAX screen that offers a frame that’s taller than it is wide and is shown in blisteringly clear 70 mm film. In the Los Angeles area, for example, there is only one true IMAX theater, which we’re not revealing because we’re still fighting for seats.

The point is, adults who appreciate film are willing to wait several weeks to see Oppenheimer in order to secure a great seat in front of a premium screen. It’s not like someone is going to spoil a true story for us. (“You mean he actually gets the bomb to work?!”)

So take heart, Mr. Nolan, and try to judge your film’s success at the end of August. And Ms. Gerwig, congratulations in advance on winning the weekend. See you both at the Oscars.