‘The leadership has gotten more radical’: CIA says Iran has lost only 30 percent of its missile stockpiles and can survive the blockade for months

A new confidential CIA analysis suggests that Iran can withstand the Strait of Hormuz blockade for at least three to four more months before facing severe economic hardship. The assessment was delivered to policymakers this week, and its findings are already raising serious questions about how the conflict is being portrayed publicly.

The report, brought to light by The Washington Post, paints a complex picture of the ongoing situation. It notes that Iran still holds significant ballistic missile capabilities, and that its leadership has not only survived the pressure so far but has also shifted in a more hardline direction in its approach to the conflict.

One official noted, “The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance [inside Iran].” The same official pointed out that similar regimes have managed to survive for years under comparable embargoes and airpower-only conflicts, suggesting Iran may be following a similar path.

Iran’s missile stockpiles remain largely intact, contradicting earlier claims of military success

When it comes to Iran’s military hardware, officials familiar with the document said Iran has lost only 25 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers, and only 30 percent of its total missile stockpiles. The regime has also successfully recovered and reopened nearly all of its underground storage facilities. It has repaired damaged missiles and assembled new ones that were close to completion when the conflict began.

These findings appear to contradict statements made by Donald Trump. On April 23, he told the press from the Oval Office, “I took the country out militarily in the first four weeks.” He also claimed, “I took it out militarily. Now what we’re doing is sitting back and seeing what deal, and if they don’t make a deal, then I’ll finish it up militarily with the other 25 percent of the targets.

He added, “We’ve hit 78 percent of the targets we’ve wanted to hit. We’ve knocked out their manufacturing, we’ve knocked out their missile production, we’ve knocked out their drone production, we’ve knocked out everything. In some cases, when I say knocked it out, 70, 80, 90 percent. It’s amazing what we’ve done.”

“So, I’ve done that within that period of time that I mentioned, but I don’t want to rush myself, ” he continues. “You know, because every source, ‘Oh, Trump is under time pressure.’ I’m not. No, no. You know who’s under time pressure? They are. Because if they don’t get their oil moving, their whole oil infrastructure is going to explode.” 

Separately, reports have also emerged that a former CIA analyst claims Trump ordered a nuclear strike on Iran, which was overruled by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Despite the CIA’s findings, some within the U.S. government believe the blockade is still causing serious damage. 

One senior official said the blockade has caused “real, compounding damage” to Iran, describing its military as “badly degraded” and its navy as having been “destroyed,” with the leadership currently in hiding. The CIA has faced scrutiny in other areas too, with questions raised over unauthorized CIA operatives involved in a cross-border drug lab raid in Mexico that left two agents dead.

According to this official, the “regime’s appetite for civilian suffering” is the main reason the war is continuing, as the government is “starving its own people to prolong a war it has already lost.” Some officials also believe the CIA’s estimates about how long Iran can survive the blockade may actually be conservative. The intelligence community continues to closely monitor the situation as the standoff goes on.