Finally, we come to the last film that has a chance to take the big prize from the PGA and the Academy, The Big Short. Personally, this is another movie that I’m not sure where the praise has been coming from as it’s nothing more than a bland, didactic, and lifeless flick about banking, with its best element being some of the performances (particularly Christian Bale). However, it has been earning nominations all over the place, and has, in fact, been the only film to get every major nomination that Best Picture winners usually get, including PGA, DGA, SAG (Best Cast), and ACE. It even has a Best Adapted Screenplay nomination from the Academy, so why would its win for Best Picture be strange?
Well, mainly because it hasn’t won a single Best Picture award from anyone. There’s no denying the film’s popularity, but there hasn’t been a single group to name it the actual best movie of the year. Of course, the industry could have a completely different feeling from the critics, but it would still be rather unusual in that the eventual Best Picture winner tends to win in at least a few places before heading into the industry awards (even Birdman snuck in six small wins before heading into the big awards). The most success The Big Short has had is in the Adapted Screenplay category, where it’s been honored by a number of groups including the Chicago Film Critics Associate and the Broadcast Film Critics Association.
This actually brings us to point number two: much like Spotlight, it’s not in the lead for much at all. In fact, just as I mentioned, it’s really only in the lead for Best Adapted Screenplay, and even that’s not particularly firm. The film received a total of five Oscar nominations, two of which were Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay. Additionally, it was nominated for Best Director, which it appears to have even less of a chance in than Spotlight, but that’s because the direction is just not that noteworthy. Plus, not a single group has given Adam McKay Best Director, and, like Best Picture, the eventual winner of Best Director tends to win in several critics groups first.
Christian Bale has been nominated for Best Supporting Actor, but he, like McKay’s direction, hasn’t received any awards at all, despite a number of nominations. Finally, the film has also been nominated for Best Film Editing, and as I’ve said several times before, there seems to be little chance of anything beating Mad Max: Fury Road, but even if Miller’s film wasn’t there, it would likely lose to the other nominees. So in the end, as strange as it may seem, it would appear that the only film with all of the necessary nominations is possibly only in the lead for one award.
All that being said, I hope you can see why I’m particularly excited about the upcoming Producers Guild awards on Saturday. For any of these films to win, some rules are going to have to break, or major changes in frontrunner statuses are going to have to occur. And just in case you were wondering about the other Best Picture nominees, there are really simple reasons as to why they don’t stand much of a chance: Bridge of Spies (no nods for Director/Film Editing), The Martian (no nods for Director/Film Editing), Room (no PGA/DGA nods), and Brooklyn (no nods for Director/Film Editing).
Your next Best Picture winner is much, much more likely in the four films that I’ve thoroughly discussed, but which one will it be? Which one will go against the odds and break some long-standing records? Join us on Saturday night to find out as we present a live-blogging of the winners of the 27th Annual Producers Guild of America Awards.
Until then, tell us, what film do you think will be taking the PGA’s top honor (and eventually the Best Picture Oscar) and why?