Sure, you can argue that Gravity is just a technical marvel with nothing else to it. You’d find millions of people disagreeing with you, but you could certainly try to argue it. Again, without all of those amazing parts coming together to work for the whole, the film wouldn’t have half the impact that it does. Because of those amazing technical achievements, it’s a thrilling ride that grabs you and doesn’t let go, an opinion that most have shared in regards to their reactions. However, reading the reviews for 12 Years a Slave, you’d find reactions that are just as emotional, which can be the key to swaying an Academy voter’s opinion over to a specific film.
The hardest part of this awards season is what to make out of this unprecedented PGA tie. We knew 12 Years a Slave had the momentum going into the awards, but we didn’t know that Gravity had just as much support. Knowing this, and all the technical backing that Gravity had already, wouldn’t it be fair to say that Gravity has the most support and that a split would not likely happen? Again, we already know that those 6,000 members of the Academy like to match up Best Picture and Best Director when they can, and with Best Director looking like a solid lock for Alfonso Cuaron (DGA, Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and the majority of other critics awards), would it not be logical to say that the best made film will lead Academy voters to list Gravity as Best Picture as well? I would think so, but if there are enough voters who felt that 12 Years a Slave had the stronger emotional impact, then it still might be able to pull through with broad support from all areas, including the Actors Branch (from which it received three nominations).
Because of the Academy’s desire for conformity and the massive support Gravity has from various branches, I don’t see a split happening this year and would be somewhat surprised if it did. As I’ve said before, it would be quite an awkward ceremony to see a film win Best Picture with three awards total, while another film took more than double that. Of course, the British Academy of Film and Television Arts has yet to weigh in on the debate. Strangely enough, their opinion could decide where we stand in just a couple of weeks. They clearly loved Gravity (11 nominations), but they also loved 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle (10 nominations each). If BAFTA (6,500 members) should split, we may have our first clear indicator that the Oscars are headed for a split as well. If they should match for Gravity, then my theories could be proven true. If they match for 12 Years a Slave, well then, that’ll be an interesting situation given how all of the big director prizes have gone to Cuaron.
Then again, they could throw us a complete curveball by naming American Hustle Best Film, which would tell us nothing given that it’s highly unlikely to occur with the American Academy (Hustle couldn’t even manage 2nd place with the PGA). There’s also the possibility of 12 Years taking Best Film and Gravity taking Best British film, which would be a way for them to honor both films with a major award, but again, it wouldn’t tell us which one they liked more, leaving us with the same quandary as before. Perhaps things will become a little clearer on February 16th, or perhaps they won’t. One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be a tense awards season right up until the end, a situation that I’m more than happy with.
Now it’s your turn to weigh in. Do you think a split will happen this year? Why or why not? Let us know your reasoning in the comments below!