Best Director
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
This couldn’t possibly be more of a lock for Damien Chazelle and his astounding direction for La La Land. All I would have to say here is that he won the Directors Guild of America’s Award for Feature Film, and it would be enough (the winner has about a 90% chance of winning the Oscar), but we can also throw in the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, and BAFTA Awards (plus a majority of directing prizes from the other critics groups). All that’s left to say is that it would be very unwise to bet against him.
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
We come to it at last, and as you’ve probably guessed well before this point, Best Picture will undoubtedly be going to the single most praised, beloved, and lauded film of the year, Damien Chazelle’s masterpiece musical, La La Land. Is there any possible way it could lose? Let’s take a look at a few possibilities. First off, the film has won Best Picture from the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Producers Guild of America. The only film to have won all of that and ultimately lose the Best Picture Oscar was Brokeback Mountain, but the film that won (Crash) had a big win from SAG (Best Cast) on its side.
This would point to Hidden Figures being a potential threat, but in this instance, I think we can safely say that it doesn’t pose any threat at all. After all, the film only earned three Oscar nods for Best Picture, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Adapted Screenplay. Having failed to earn nods for Best Director and Best Film Editing would seem to knock it out of contention completely. That’s not even to mention that I couldn’t even tell you the last time a film won Best Picture with only three nominations.
It’s also interesting to note that La La Land would be the first movie since Braveheart to win Best Picture without getting a nod for SAG’s Best Cast Award, but given that it’s not an ensemble piece, there was no reason to expect it to get nominated there. Basically, this means that a long-standing stat (20+ years) will more than likely finally be broken, similar to when the PGA’s streak came to an end last year when they randomly chose The Big Short as their winner (a film that everyone knew wasn’t going to be able to get a consensus from The Academy).
There are also many who are saying that Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight could be a major threat, especially since it was the second most lauded film of the year. However, its biggest accolades came in the form of the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama) and the WGA Award for Original Screenplay. It lost awards from The Producers Guild of America, The Directors Guild of America, and SAG’s Best Cast, giving it quite the uphill battle to fight. To win, it would have to pull a “Braveheart,” that being the last film to win Best Picture after having only won a WGA Award from the major guilds. If it were to win, it would be the biggest upset in over 20 years (yes, even bigger than when Crash unexpectedly took the big prize).
No, I think we’re looking at an incredibly easy win for La La Land. After all, it’s a marvelous film about chasing your dreams in Los Angeles, with one of the two lovers trying to break into the acting industry. How could The Academy NOT go for it? Heck, we can even throw in the fact that no film that’s been nominated for 14 Academy Awards (All About Eve and Titanic) has ever lost the Best Picture Oscar
It’s been three whole years, but it looks like we’re finally back to an instance of the critics, The PGA, and The Academy all agreeing on the best film of the year. After last year’s complete disaster (the forgettable, by-the-numbers journalist drama Spotlight somehow won Best Picture over several better nominees), this will be a nice breath of fresh air to make up for it. Of course, I fully expect next year to be another disaster (every time The Academy chooses the best film of the year, it seems to be paid for the very next year), but we’ll deal with that when the time comes. Until then, let’s just enjoy what will hopefully be a fantastic night at the Oscars.
Tell us, do you agree with our predictions? And who do you think will be taking home Oscar gold on Sunday night? Let us know in the comments below!