Here’s where things get extremely interesting. It’s also the point where we have to ask ourselves the all-important question: Will Selma once again be snubbed? Originally thought of as a lock for all three guilds, the film has found itself left out in the cold again and again due to Paramount’s unwillingness to send out screeners, meaning that many guild members simply never got to see it. Therefore, it got snubbed for Best Cast and Best Actor with SAG, and was further snubbed by the PGA for their top honor, and that was in a field of ten nominees. For this reason, I am forced to conclude that it is not likely that we will be hearing Ava DuVernay’s name called tomorrow, especially when we are dealing with only five slots. That’s not saying it’s impossible, just that it’s highly unlikely.
So, in this instance, who do we turn to to fill up that fifth spot? Well, there are many possibilities, but the problem is finding the most likely of those who remain. For this purpose, it’s best to look at which other films have been garnering a lot of praise, which include The Theory of Everything (James Marsh), The Imitation Game (Morten Tyldum), Whiplash (Damien Chazelle), and Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy). There are obviously more, but I think that our most likely nominee lies within these four. Now we just need to narrow it down to who’s the most likely to be included.
The Imitation Game is a great film, and even made my top ten list of the year, but when it comes to Tyldum’s chances of being nominated here, it seem somewhat unlikely, mainly because his name has not come up that much in the category. Nightcrawler is another amazing film, and is another that made my top ten. However, while Gilroy has won a pair of minor Best Director awards (San Diego and Nevada), he too is a name that simply hasn’t come up that much.
James Marsh is no stranger to the DGA, having been nominated twice for his documentaries, and winning once. Add to that the fact that he was recently nominated for Best Director by BAFTA and you have a stronger potential candidate that Tyldum and Gilroy. However, despite the BAFTA nomination, I don’t think it will be him simply because his name is nowhere to be seen elsewhere. Plus, you can quite possibly chalk up the BAFTA nomination to his being British, with the British Academy leaning that way to applaud a British film. He remains a possibility, but I think the final name in this lot is where we’ll find #5.
Damien Chazelle has been getting quite a lot of acclaim for Whiplash, a film that is something of a typical “suffering for your art” flick, but done in a pretty compelling manner, thanks especially to J.K. Simmons’ brilliant, and soon to be Oscar-winning, performance. However, Chazelle also deserves the acclaim he’s been receiving as it’s hard to make a film that consists of lots and lots of drum-playing as compelling as he did. Unlike some of the other possible finalists for this slot, his is a name that’s been showing up in quite a few places, including nominations from DC, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, and Phoenix. Oh, and let’s not forget that he also got a BAFTA nomination to go on top of all of that. He may not have made it into the HFPA or BFCA’s nominations, but he’s gotten a lot of recognition nonetheless, and that’s why I think he’s our best bet at finishing off the list of the DGA’s nominees.
Of course, this doesn’t discount the possibility of having someone completely random thrown in. It’s quite possible that we could be seeing DGA favorite Christopher Nolan included for Interstellar. He’s been nominated three times before (Memento, The Dark Knight, and Inception), and while his latest project was a little disappointing, there’s no denying that it was a visual wonder, thanks in no small part to Nolan’s brilliant eye for direction. On the other end of the spectrum, we shouldn’t discount the possibility either of seeing Clint Eastwood show up for his sub-par war picture American Sniper. He’s been nominated three times himself (Unforgiven, Mystic River, and Million Dollar Baby), and even won twice. However, this seems incredibly unlikely as the film has received merely so-so reviews and, aside from a random Best Director award from the outlying National Board of Review, he has received little other recognition for his direction of it.
And so, after all of the reasoning and deduction, my list looks like this:
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
It’s quite possible that the three non-locks are completely wrong, but we’ll just have to wait until tomorrow to see what the DGA decides. Be sure to check back in to see the results. In the meantime, who do you think has the best chance of being included in tomorrow’s nominees? Let us know in the comments below!
