Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed has taken a 7-point lead over his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Rogers, in the race for the Michigan Senate seat. This newest data, which comes from a Suffolk University poll released on Tuesday, shows 47 percent of likely Michigan voters backing El-Sayed, while 40 percent support Rogers for the November contest.
It is interesting to see how the demographic breakdown is shaping up as we get closer to the election. The survey highlights that El-Sayed is finding success with younger voters, female voters, and Black voters. On the other side of the aisle, Rogers currently holds an advantage among older voters, male voters, and white voters. When you look at party lines, the data is fairly predictable, with 81 percent of Democrats backing El-Sayed and 90 percent of Republicans supporting Rogers.
The real game changer here seems to be the independent vote. David Paleologos, the director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, pointed out that El-Sayed has a 16-point advantage among voters who aren’t affiliated with any political party. Paleologos noted, “Abdul El-Sayed is popular with unaffiliated Michigan voters.”
This demographic breakdown could prove vital for El-Sayed’s campaign
Paleologos added, “That, in addition to the unpopularity of recent tariffs imposed on Canada and voter unhappiness over the possibility of data centers in Michigan, has caused a massive shift to Democratic candidates among independents compared to 2024.”
El-Sayed has been ramping up his campaign efforts significantly over the last few weeks, especially with the midterm election now only six weeks away. He even made a trip to Washington, D.C. last week to spend time meeting with senators on Capitol Hill. The campaign is also bringing in some heavy hitters to help boost his profile. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to join him for a campaign event in Detroit on Tuesday.
When talking about his strategy to win over more support, El-Sayed mentioned that he is focused on expanding his coalition to include people who supported Harris in the 2024 presidential election. In a statement to NewsNation, El-Sayed said, “She speaks to a community of people I really want to make sure we are speaking to.” He continued, “I want to be able to build the kind of coalition that includes Vice President Harris, that includes Bernie Sanders, and that brings folks together around what we can build together.”
This isn’t the first time we have seen El-Sayed gain some ground in the polls. He has been trending upward recently, having secured a 3-point advantage in a Washington Post survey and a 2-point advantage in an Emerson College poll earlier this month.
This latest Suffolk University survey included responses from 500 likely Michigan voters between September 16 and September 20, with a margin of error of approximately 4.4 percentage points.
Published: Sep 22, 2026 04:29 pm