Iran’s face-saving missile strike gives Trump the perfect excuse to declare victory and walk away from war

Iran launched 14 short and medium-range ballistic missiles toward the American-operated Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, in what appears to be a carefully measured response to U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

According to MSNBC, the missile attack came after the United States conducted strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites at Natanz, Fordo, and Isfahan. Before carrying out the strike, Iran gave Qatar advance notice about the timing and location of the attack, showing clear signs of wanting to avoid major escalation.

Iran’s careful approach to retaliation offered President Donald Trump, who has shown a pattern of backing down when faced with serious international pressure, an easy way to step back from further conflict. By keeping the strike limited and providing advance warning, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave Trump a perfect opportunity to declare victory and walk away from war.

How Iran’s military capabilities compare to U.S. forces

The Iranian military finds itself at a clear disadvantage when compared to U.S. and Israeli forces. While Iran has the largest collection of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, it has used nearly half of its supply in less than two weeks. The U.S. and Israel have shown they can freely operate in Iranian airspace with limited resistance.

Trump had previously warned Iran that any retaliation resulting in American deaths would lead to even stronger U.S. military action. “There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days,” Trump stated after the U.S. bombing campaign.

This isn’t the first time Iran has taken this approach. In January 2020, after the U.S. killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, Tehran warned Iraq about upcoming missile strikes, allowing American forces to prepare. The advance notice helped limit the damage at U.S. bases.

In the latest exchange, U.S. air defenses intercepted the Iranian missiles in Qatari airspace, resulting in minimal damage and no American casualties. Trump acknowledged Iran’s restraint on Truth Social, thanking them for the advance notice that prevented loss of life, demonstrating the kind of strategic communication flip-flopping that has become his trademark. He later announced that Israel and Iran would begin a ceasefire within 24 hours.