JD Vance asks voters to ‘give us another chance’ in the midterms. But prediction markets now favor a Democratic sweep: ‘A lot of work left to do’

Vice President JD Vance made the White House’s case to voters ahead of the midterms. He said, “There’s a lot of good that’s been done, but there’s a lot of work left to do.” He also told listeners that voters should “give us another chance” when they go to the polls in November.

Those comments, which he made on the All-In Podcast, arrived as public surveys have painted a stronger picture for Democrats with fewer than 50 days left before Election Day. Several recent polls have put Democrats ahead on the generic ballot and have shown them gaining ground in competitive districts.

Betting platforms have moved in the same direction. On Wednesday afternoon, Polymarket wrote on X: “BREAKING: Democrats surge to record-high odds to sweep both chambers of Congress in the 2026 midterms. 59% chance.”

Prediction markets and new surveys put Democrats ahead on the generic ballot

Kalshi figures posted Wednesday afternoon showed more than 53 percent of contracts priced a Democratic sweep of both chambers, against more than 13 percent for a Republican sweep. That Democratic sweep marked a new high on the exchange that day.

Midterms have long been treated as a referendum on the party that holds the White House. The president’s party has typically lost seats in those elections. Republicans now hold slim majorities in the House and the Senate.

Vance offered a second pitch on the podcast. He said, “The second argument I’d make is, even if you don’t agree with us on every issue, the other party is consumed by craziness. They’re consumed by people who want to steal everything, who want to give the country over to illegal aliens and criminals. They actively brag about it.”

He went on, “So, to the American people, I’d say, send these people packing, put them in the mental hospital, do not put them in Congress, because even if you don’t agree with us on every policy issue, at least we’re motivated by common sense and American interest. They’re just motivated by left-wing interest groups and radicalism, and they’re going to do a very bad job if we give them power.” Vance has recently made other controversial remarks, such as when he called El Sayed voters self-hating white liberals.

He framed the choice as a warning against handing Democrats control. “Don’t give power to the people who cause the problems that we’re fixing,” he said. Vance has also framed his political mission in religious terms, such as when he insisted he is doing God’s work. “Give us another chance, or give us another couple of years, to continue to work on the amazing things that we’ve been doing for the past two years.”

According to the numbers shared by YouGov/Economist, Democrats hold a 51%-39% advantage over Republicans among likely voters.

Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate races as toss-ups and recently shifted New Hampshire toward Republicans.

The toss-up list is Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Texas. Five of those seats are Republican-held. Michigan and New Hampshire are open seats now held by Democrats. Cook had earlier moved Texas and Iowa from lean Republican into the toss-up column after competitive polling.

President Donald Trump said earlier this month that he plans to campaign in the closing days before November and work in 35 key races. He said he intends to make many stops in the final stretch of the closest House and Senate contests.