Mike Rogers claims he leads by 7 points in early ballots, but offers no evidence and polls say otherwise

Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers told Fox News that his campaign’s models show him ahead by roughly seven percent among people who have already returned their ballots in Michigan. He presented the figure as a sign of strength heading into the final stretch. Rogers offered no outside data or additional details to support the number.

“We’re actually about seven percent ahead on voters that we believe are voting for us returning their ballots,” Rogers said on the network. He noted that the assessment came “by our models.” The claim sits well outside the picture painted by recent public surveys.

A CNN poll released on Thursday found that 49 percent of respondents backed or leaned toward Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, and 42 percent favored Rogers. Decision Desk HQ, a nonpartisan forecaster, currently gives El-Sayed a 74 percent chance of winning the seat. The race is widely viewed as competitive in its closing days.

Closing days bring public split between El-Sayed and former primary opponent

El-Sayed, who was criticized by Nancy Pelosi for his stance on Israel, spent part of the final weekend in a public disagreement with Rep. Haley Stevens, the Democrat he defeated in the primary. He asked her to stay away from his campaign events and canceled her appearance scheduled for Sunday. The break followed differences over a political ad that backed his candidacy.

That ad appeared to place blame on Israel and Jews for higher living costs. Stevens and El-Sayed did not agree on the message. Rogers used his Fox News appearance to highlight related comments from Stevens’ fiancé, Jason Turkish.

Turkish said he would not vote for El-Sayed. He also accused the Democrat of using antisemitic language during the campaign. Stevens responded that she continues to support El-Sayed anyway.

“Like a lot of households in America, we’re a household divided,” she said. Rogers separately claimed support from some Jewish voters who usually back Democrats. “We have a massive number of Jewish Democrats who are openly … organizing to vote for us,” he told Fox News.

Rogers has pointed to El-Sayed’s challenges with certain Jewish Democrats as the race remains tight. Public polls and forecasts continue to favor El-Sayed at this stage. No independent confirmation of Rogers’ early-ballot lead has been released.