Donald Trump’s failed Iran gambit leaves America facing the nuclear threat he promised would never happen

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued an important warning, stating that Iran has the ability to start enriching uranium again very quickly, possibly in just a few months. This evaluation comes after recent military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which, according to the leader of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, caused major damage but did not completely destroy them. The IAEA’s statement highlights ongoing worries about how fast Iran could rebuild its nuclear program and the unanswered questions about where its stockpiles of enriched uranium are and what condition they are in.

According to Politico, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the Director General of the IAEA, explained that despite recent attacks by the United States and Israel, Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was not completely wiped out. His assessment suggests that while the damage was serious, the country still has the ability to repair and rebuild its facilities. This view differs from earlier claims that Iran’s nuclear sites had been fully disabled.

The attacks, which involved Israel using drones and warplanes in mid-June, followed a week later by U.S. bombings of key Iranian nuclear sites, were meant to slow down Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. These strikes led to Iranian counterattacks on Israeli cities and a U.S. airbase in Qatar, eventually resulting in a ceasefire announcement.

Iran isn’t doing much worse after US attacks

A major concern raised by the IAEA is the uncertainty about Iran’s stockpiles of enriched uranium. Before the military strikes, there were questions about whether Iran had moved its enriched uranium and whether important centrifuges at nuclear sites were still working. The IAEA currently does not know for sure where any moved materials might be.

Some of these materials may have been destroyed in the attacks, while others could have been secretly taken to unknown locations. This lack of clear information, conspiracy theories being thrown around, and lack of verification is a problem for the international community and could lead to future instability unless it is resolved. However, it could be easier to fix things if Trump gives them money.

The IAEA’s ability to directly assess the situation in Iran is very limited right now. The agency does not have staff inside Iran, so it cannot immediately inspect the damage or check the exact status of nuclear materials. Because of this, the IAEA’s current understanding comes only from intelligence reports. Grossi stressed that the agency’s main goal is not to measure how much physical damage was done but to regain full knowledge of what is happening at these sites and to restore access to nuclear materials. This access is crucial for maintaining international oversight and confirming whether Iran is following its commitments to prevent nuclear weapons development.

Despite the current situation, Iran is still part of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, an international agreement that requires it to work with the IAEA. This continued commitment is important, especially since Iran has blocked the IAEA chief from entering its nuclear facilities and removed surveillance cameras. The IAEA director general noted that Iran’s own laws do not necessarily conflict with the agency’s inspection requirements. He also pointed out that Iran has not officially used its internal laws to avoid its international treaty obligations, leaving at least some possibility for future cooperation, even if it is limited.