‘This is Trump’s war’: What happens if India and Pakistan have a nuclear exchange?

Donald Trump proudly insisted, “I’m going to stop the wars” during his election victory speech. Now Israel is preparing a “conquest” of Gaza City, Kyiv is being bombarded by Russian missiles, and India and Pakistan are on the brink of nuclear annihilation. Great job, Mr. President!

Two nuclear powers engaged in open warfare against one another should send shivers up everyone’s spine, but especially so given the decades-long mutual anger between the two countries over the disputed Kashmir region.

Boy, don't you just feel safer under Donald Trump?

…Israel bombing Gaza
…Israel bombing Yemen
…India bombing Pakistan
…US bombing Yemen

This is the "no wars" President 77 million voted for.

— Don Winslow (@donwinslow) May 6, 2025

Tension has been steadily rising between India and Pakistan since Apr. 22, when a group of gunmen opened fire on holidaymakers in the Baisaran Valley area of India-controlled Kashmir, which is a popular tourist destination. 28 civilians were killed, making it the deadliest attack on civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack.

Last night, India responded to the attacks with missile strikes aimed at what they describe as “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan. The Pakistani government angrily disputes that, saying that 26 civilians were killed and 46 injured. Now, Pakistan is preparing its response and PM Shehbaz Sharif has authorized the military to undertake “corresponding actions” against India.

This conflict has the risk of escalating into a nuclear exchange. But how likely is that, what would happen, and could this spark a wider nuclear global war?

What happens if India and Pakistan use their nuclear weapons?

Trumps first war is India and Pakistan: two nuclear nations run by ideological nut jobs.

If you’re the praying type, it’s time. https://t.co/Ivzg3wrAwm

— Rachel Bitecofer 🗽🦆 (@RachelBitecofer) May 6, 2025

Let’s get one thing clear up top. Yes, India and Pakistan are involved in an escalating and bitter conflict and are widely considered to be the most likely countries to use nuclear weapons. However, both India and Pakistan are also well aware that this would mean mutually assured destruction, meaning the chances of nuclear war taking place are slim.

But “slim” is not “impossible”. Both India and Pakistan are estimated to have at minimum 170 warheads each, and they’re actively targeting each other’s population centers at all times. As such, the consequences would be unimaginably deadly if they were used. For example, it’s estimated that a single 100-kiloton warhead striking New Delhi would instantly cause around 2-3 million deaths from the blast, heat, and radiation, with millions more dying soon afterwards as key infrastructure collapses.

But if New Delhi were hit, we’d be looking at a full-scale India/Pakistan nuclear exchange, with estimates that 100 million people would die immediately and the world would be plunged into a nuclear winter due to the massive amounts of soot thrown into the atmosphere that’d take at least a decade to clear. This would be the worst humanitarian disaster in history and the consequences would ripple through the region for centuries to come.

If there were a nuclear exchange, predicting the immediate aftermath is impossible, but the massive global instability that would follow may result in further nuclear exchanges between countries. Even if the conflict didn’t spread, a limited nuclear exchange would reshape international relations and trigger widespread paranoia not seen since the Cold War.

All of which means careful diplomacy is more critical now than ever. In ordinary circumstances, the world would look to the United States to lead talks and find a way for both countries to de-escalate. But we’re not in ordinary circumstances, and, frankly, Donald Trump is the last person I’d call to de-escalate any situation, which is already being dubbed “Trump’s war“. As such, India and Pakistan may have to look to China or Russia for routes out of this conflict, and they’re partners who each come with major strings attached.

I should underline once again that even now, the chances of India and Pakistan using nuclear weapons remain low. But, if a nuclear war is going to happen, these countries are most likely to light the match.