‘Life or death’: Republicans see ‘best shot in 20 years’ to win, but it all depends on Kamala Harris

California Republicans are actively positioning themselves against Kamala Harris in anticipation of her potential run for governor, despite her not yet announcing her candidacy. The former vice president has given herself until late summer to make a decision, but GOP candidates are already launching campaigns focused on what they describe as failed Democratic governance.

According to Politico, conservative pundit Steve Hilton and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco have become early Republican contenders, both using Harris as a focal point of their campaigns and making appearances on Fox News to criticize Democratic leadership in California. The strategy appears to be part of a larger effort to nationalize the governor’s race and attract nationwide attention and funding.

“I sense that this is the best shot for someone to be elected statewide in California who’s not a Democrat for at least 20 years, and I think the evident reason for that is the failure of one-party rule,” Hilton stated, arguing that Harris represents the status quo rather than the change he believes voters want.

Republicans see fundraising potential in Harris’s possible candidacy

The presence of Harris in the race could potentially solve one of the biggest obstacles facing Republican candidates: fundraising. Political consultant Dave Gilliard suggests that Harris’s candidacy could attract donors from across the country who might otherwise view a California gubernatorial race as unwinnable for Republicans.

The possibility of Elon Musk ending his political giving hiatus has also emerged, given his public criticism of Harris. Additionally, Richard Grenell, a southern California Republican and Trump supporter, has indicated he might enter the race if Harris runs, potentially tapping into the MAGA base.

Despite Republican optimism, California remains a predominantly Democratic state, with Harris winning 59 percent of the vote against Trump in 2024. However, Republicans point to Harris underperforming compared to Biden’s 2020 results across the state as evidence of potential vulnerability, particularly among centrist and Latino voters.

The Democratic field currently includes former Rep. Katie Porter, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis. The financial disparity between parties in previous races has been substantial, with Democratic Governor Newsom raising $40 million in his 2018 campaign, while his Republican opponent John Cox managed only $11 million from external donors.

While Republicans acknowledge the significant challenges of winning in California, they believe Harris’s candidacy could change the traditional fundraising dynamic. Former California Republican Party Chair Jessica Millan Patterson compared the situation to congressional races where opponents of high-profile Democrats like Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy were able to raise substantial funds due to name recognition and opposition motivation.