The Texas Senate race is in a dead heat as we head toward the final stretch of the election cycle. Per USA Today, a new poll released by N+ Univision shows Democrat state Rep. James Talarico holding a narrow 48% to 43% lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. With 7% of voters still undecided, the landscape is pretty volatile in the days leading up to the Republican midterm convention in Texas.
The N+ Univision surveyed 1000 registered voters and found some surprising statistics for the traditionally red state. In fact, Republicans have held the seat for more than three decades, with the last democrat holding the seat in 1993. USA Today noted that Texas voters have moved 8 points toward Democrats since the 2024 election. The shift is even more pronounced among Hispanic voters, who have moved 11 points in that same direction.
When asked why their views had changed, 25% of voters pointed directly to the actions of President Donald Trump. Talarico is currently enjoying a more favorable standing, with 44% of voters viewing him positively compared to 36% for Paxton. However, the race remains statistically tight. Another big part of the shift is the interesting pattern in the funding behind both candidates and the visibility they have been able to achieve as a result.
The money in play
According to The Texas Tribune, Talarico has raised more money at this stage of the race than any Texas general-election candidate in the last decade. By the end of June, Talarico had raised a cumulative $72.0 million since the beginning of 2025, while Paxton had brought in $16.8 million. Talarico ended that period with $23.3 million on hand, which is more than triple what his GOP rival had available.
Interestingly, The Tribune noted that Talarico’s campaign has been fueled by small-donor enthusiasm, with 51% of his contributions coming from individuals giving less than $200. Conversely, 88% of Paxton’s funding has come from larger donors.
Considering Talarico’s consistent, if narrow, lead in the polls, Paxton is now getting significant help from outside groups. Axios reported that the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC recently launched a $10 million ad campaign to support the attorney general. Additionally, Elon Musk’s America PAC has also stepped into the fray, reporting $2.4 million in spending to bolster Paxton.
One of the most interesting dynamics in this cycle is the absence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee from this high-stakes race. According to The San Antonio Express-News, the influential pro-Israel group has not backed a candidate in this Senate battle since their close ally, John Cornyn, lost the Republican primary.
Talarico has explicitly pledged not to take money from the committee. He has reportedly supported defensive systems like the Iron Dome, but he has been highly critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“October 7th was the deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust — and Israel has the right to defend its people,” Talarico says on his campaign website, per San Antonio Express-News. “But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not have the right to bomb civilians, restrict aid, or use forced famine and collective punishment as tactics.”
Paxton has been clearly pro-israel in the past, having called Israel the U.S.’s greatest ally in the past, and even calling for action against students at Plano ISD for their “pro-Palestinian or anti-Israel walkouts.” However, when he began his campaign, he promised to fight to “advance an America First foreign policy.”
The San Antonio Express-News noted that when he was asked about growing right-wing hostility toward Israel, Paxton said, “Now does that mean that we fund everything they want to fund? It means that we should consider our view — the America First agenda first.” This led him to publicly question the need to continue “sending billions to foreign countries and protecting the borders of other nations,” including Israel.
That being said, Republican strategists believe that AIPAC will likely throw their support behind Paxton in the end. The outlet noted that this would be key for Paxton in helping sway undecided voters who look to AIPAC for guidance.
As we look toward November 3, it is clear that this race is going to be a nail-biter. Talarico has dominated the airwaves for much of the summer, but with the full weight of the Republican establishment and significant outside spending now backing Paxton, the dynamics could shift again.
Published: Sep 10, 2026 09:49 am