Americans see Donald Trump‘s unpredictable behavior as a dangerous trait, which, most of the time, is true, but foreign leaders like Volodymyr Zelenskyy see it as an opportunity.
Zelenskyy seems to think that Trump’s trademark volatility could be useful in destabilizing the Kremlin. “I believe [Trump] is strong and unpredictable,” Zelesnkyy said in a Ukrainian TV interview. “I would very much like President Trump’s unpredictability to be directed primarily toward the Russian Federation.” What he wants to say is that if Trump is going to make headlines for being himself, Zelensky wants Putin to be the one sweating under the spotlight.
Trump’s history with Ukraine is complicated, to say the least. We’re talking about the same man who was impeached for trying to squeeze Zelenskyy into investigating Hunter and Joe Biden. Trump has also repeatedly praised Vladimir Putin with such admiration that you expect him to invite the Russian leader to Mar-a-Lago for golf and a Diet Coke. But Zelenskyy seems willing to gamble that Trump’s “art of the deal” might just do the trick against Russia. Surely, he doesn’t believe that Trump really could end the war in 24 hours.
Zelenskyy might be getting ahead of himself. Trump has made it clear that his “America First” foreign policy, which feels like an “America Only” policy, would prioritize America’s agenda. He repeatedly stated that he is against the U.S. aid to Ukraine. And, with his insistent if vague admiration for Putin, many Ukrainians are scared of what a second Trump presidency means. Obviously, Zelenskyy is aware of this, but he knows what’s at stake here. With nearly 20% of Ukraine under Russian control and the battlefield momentum slipping, Zelenskyy has to play every card in his deck — even if it’s a wild one.
And we have to agree that Trump is a wild card. For every hint that he might back Western peacekeepers in Ukraine, there’s a fear he’d broker a deal that sacrifices chunks of Ukrainian land just to stamp his name on a “win.” It’s this unpredictability that Zelenskyy is talking about, and he would like to channel it into something that pressures Moscow, rather than undermines Kyiv. It’s a tricky situation, especially since JD Vance has already floated the idea of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia.
Ukraine can’t afford to denounce either Trump’s admiration of Putin, or Vance’s comments. So, they must play the game. Zelenskyy will have to spin multiple plates, keeping Ukraine’s allies interested, NATO membership as an option, and Washington in his corner. Meanwhile, he’s giving just enough praise to Trump’s “strength” to make him believe he’s indispensable to Ukraine’s cause. Will this strategy pay off, however? If Trump does decide to flex his unpredictability, Putin might finally know what it’s like to face an opponent who plays by even fewer rules than he does. Would a Trump reversal on his Putin bromance end the war? We doubt it, but it may be enough to pressure Putin into ceding territory and taking peace negotiations seriously.
Zelenskyy is telling the world, and Trump, that the door to diplomacy is open — as long as the path doesn’t lead Ukraine to sacrifice what it’s fought so hard to defend. And, if Zelenskyy gets his way, unpredictability might finally work in Ukraine’s favor.
Published: Jan 3, 2025 02:58 pm