According to Deadline, Solo: A Star Wars Story is projected to take in between $135 million and $170 million domestically on its first weekend, meaning that the Han Solo spinoff picture could potentially break the record for biggest Memorial Day opening. The current record was set back in 2007 by Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, which managed to gross $139.8 million in its first weekend, while X-Men: Days of Future Past was the last to pass the $100 million mark in 2014.
Overseas, the Alden Ehrenreich-led space actioner is expected to take in at least $150 million and at most $170 million, adding up to a worldwide debut of somewhere between $285 million and $340 million. For comparison sake, the franchise’s last spinoff movie, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, grossed $155 million domestically and $290.5 million globally on its mid-December opening weekend.
If the film performs as well as these industry projections, it’ll surely come as a relief to anyone made nervous by the murmurings and setbacks in the lead-up to the release. It’s been a rocky journey for Solo, from the last-minute firing of directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller to the underwhelmed response that met the film’s official first teaser trailer. But with ticket presales on Fandango doubling those of Black Panther on the first day, it seems that there’s still a sizable audience out there who’re open to seeing a fresh young talent step into the role made famous by Harrison Ford.
Circling back to those numbers, though, and Disney’s own estimate is a little more cautious than the industry projection, gauging the opening weekend gross as $130 million to $150 million. In any case, it seems increasingly unlikely that Solo: A Star Wars Story will be the film to finally break the franchise’s ongoing commercial winning streak when it comes out this Friday.