Talarico’s lead on Paxton is growing as midterm approaches, and it’s up to 5 points, according to latest Texas Senate race poll

Texas state Representative James Talarico is pulling ahead in the race for the Texas Senate, holding a 5-point lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton as the midterm elections draw closer. This latest data comes from the Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Friday, which shows Talarico capturing 49 percent of voter support compared to 44 percent for Paxton.

With only 3 percent of voters remaining undecided, the momentum seems to be favoring the Democrat, though this is the second month in a row that TPOR has tracked this shift. In the previous month, Talarico held a 6-point lead, showing a consistent trend in his favor.

Talarico is performing very well with specific demographics, leading among Latino and Black voters, as well as those under 55 years of age. He also maintains a lead among both men and women, along with college-educated voters. On the flip side, Paxton continues to hold onto his base, maintaining the lead among white voters and those 55 years and older. Independent voters are clearly leaning toward Talarico, favoring him by a double-digit margin of 58 percent to 26 percent.

As to the reasons why voters are backing their chosen candidates, the motivations are quite varied

For those supporting Talarico, 21 percent pointed to general approval, while 17 percent described him as a “champion of ordinary people” and 15 percent highlighted his “honesty, integrity and character.” A smaller portion, about 10 percent, mentioned they are looking for a change in leadership.

Paxton’s supporters have different priorities. About 25 percent cited general approval, while 23 percent noted they support him primarily because of their dislike of Talarico. Party loyalty and his record in office rounded out the top reasons for his base.

The policy debates are also heating up, and voters seem to be siding with Talarico on key economic and tech issues. On the cost of living and financial improvement, Talarico leads 49 percent to 42 percent. He also holds a lead when it comes to handling data centers and artificial intelligence, sitting at 45 percent to Paxton’s 40 percent.

These findings align with broader polling trends, as a Marist poll released last Thursday showed Talarico at 50 percent to Paxton’s 44 percent. Additionally, a poll from the NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo Station Group has Talarico ahead at 46 percent to 43 percent.

Because of these numbers, the Senate race has shifted to a “toss-up” according to the latest update from the Cook Political Report. This is a significant development for a contest that is usually considered an uphill battle for Democrats in Texas.

Both sides are clearly aware of the stakes, as Republican groups are putting significant resources into the state to keep the Senate in GOP control. This includes the Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas affiliate, which is tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Furthermore, a recent Federal Election Commission filing shows that President Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. contributed $5 million to the race.

The TPOR survey was conducted from September 19 to September 2 and included 1,007 respondents with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.