Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Jon Ossoff tied in Dem 2028 presidential nomination prediction markets, Gavin Newsom bringing up rear in third

There is a very real chance that in January 2029, we will see the eye-popping political theater of Donald Trump attending Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez‘s presidential inauguration. The 36-year-old New York congresswoman has been the front-runner for months in Democratic polls as the party’s 2028 pick, despite not having officially confirmed that she’s running.

But she may now face stiff competition. As per Coinbase’s prediction markets, AOC’s polling lead is now matched by Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, who recently rose to prominence due to his incendiary comments slamming the Trump administration. Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California who has expressed interest in running, brings up the rear in third place. Interestingly, Pete Buttigieg, who is performing well in other polls, does not feature here.

However, despite Ossoff’s burst in popularity, he’s previously been adamant that he’s not interested in the presidency. In response to a NY Times opinion piece by Michelle Goldberg arguing he’d be an ideal anti-MAGA candidate, Ossoff did not leave any room for ambiguity, telling CNN, “Let me reiterate. I am not running for president in 2028. I have no interest in running for president in 2028. I am laser-focused on this Senate race in Georgia.”

“This just shows Democrats want a fighter”

However, Ossoff effectively has to say this, as if he did express an interest in the presidency, his comments would be seized on by his opponents as proof that Georgia is not his top priority. Even so, Ossoff’s words are a notable contrast with Ocasio-Cortez.

In May, she said: “What’s funny is they assume my ambition is a title or a seat… My ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country” and in June 2026 she told Fox News, “Could I be president? Could I not be president? Maybe, maybe not.” When asked what she thought about being the front-runner, Ocasio-Cortez said she is “deeply flattered and humbled”.

Joe Biden’s former special assistant Megan Hayes explained that AOC ticks a lot of boxes for Democratic voters: “I think a lot of it is name ID. I think a lot of it is her popularity within the party.” She went on to emphasize that Democrats are eager for someone passionate and combative: “The Democratic Party really wants a fighter. She is someone that has been fighting back on Trump and Republican policy since she’s gotten into Congress. So I do think that does say a lot for this poll of where she stands. … This just shows Democrats want a fighter and she’s out there fighting.”

However, Axios reported in May 2026 that Ocasio-Cortez was still “genuinely undecided” about whether she wants to launch a presidential campaign, pointing out that she may also be considering a 2028 Senate run against Chuck Schumer. Their source said, “The way she will evaluate the decision is really around where she believes she can make the most change.” Expect the Democratic presidential primary campaigns to commence in earnest once the November midterms are out of the way.