Is Trump’s ‘no tax on overtime’ promise really going to happen or is he lying again?

Donald Trump breaks promises as fast as he makes them. During his time on the campaign trail, he promised everything from fixing the “broken” economy to ending daylight saving time to a multitude of ill-defined tax policies.

Throughout the days leading up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump spoke of several ways he pledged to change the tax code once again. One of these methods was eliminating taxes on overtime pay. “As part of our additional tax cuts, we will end all taxes on overtime,” he told the audience at a rally in Tucson, Arizona in September. “If you’re an overtime worker, when you’re past 40 hours a week, your overtime hours will be tax-free,” he continued.

Did he elaborate any further than that? No. Will he elaborate in the future? Honestly, if the past few years of Trumpian politics have told me anything, it’s that I’m unlikely to hear a coherent explanation of Trump’s policies from the man himself. The more important question is: Will Trump actually eliminate overtime taxes? 

Will Trump keep his promise to exempt overtime pay from taxes?

We won’t know until he’s in office, but Trump has a few hurdles to overcome if he wants to keep his word. First, only a portion of the job force qualifies for overtime pay. Earlier this year, the Biden administration added a new Department of Labor rule that extends overtime to more salaried workers in addition to the majority of hourly workers who already qualify.

Even so, the Budget Lab at Yale reports that only an estimated 8% of hourly workers and 4% salaried workers who work overtime hours are eligible under the Fair Labor Standards Act. This isn’t a large part of the working population, so eliminating overtime pay could be overlooked in favor of other tax policies with a wider reach. Though, it wouldn’t be the first Trump supported tax overhauls that favor a small percentage of the population — I mean, he has enacted policies that disproportionately benefit the 1%. 

Exempting overtime pay from taxes will add to the federal deficit, which could also stop it from going into effect. The Budget Lab at Yale estimates the overtime tax exemption will cost $866 billion in ten years while the Tax Foundation predicts a more modest $680.4 billion increase in the same time. If Congress approves an extension for Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the deficit would increase by $4.6 trillion over a decade. What’s another trillion or two if Trump can enact more confusing exemptions to the tax code and allow more opportunities for billionaires to avoid taxes? 

Despite those obstacles, it’s possible Trump’s proposed no taxation on overtime pay will come into play during his second term. Trump says that imposing widespread tariffs will help pay for these tax cuts, although at the cost of raising consumer prices. The not-actually-a-government-agency agency, Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Governmental Efficiency, is supposed to look for ways to eliminate wasteful government spending so Trump’s plans can come to fruition. How a project led by two unelected businessmen will ultimately improve government efficiency remains yet to be seen, as does Trump’s commitment to actually doing the things he promised before the election.