Decision Desk HQ projected Democrat James Talarico as the winner over Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race on Tuesday night. Paxton had received an endorsement from President Trump heading into the midterms.
The projected result would make Talarico the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas since 1988. Statewide races in the state have typically gone to Republicans for many years.
Talarico and Paxton competed in a close contest. During the campaign, Trump publicly backed Paxton but also criticized parts of his appearance and manner.
Trump’s comments supporting and criticizing Paxton in the Texas race
Trump spoke to a crowd in Texas about his long association with Paxton. According to Mediaite, he said, “He’s been a friend of mine for a long time, one of the most loyal people.”
He described Paxton standing with him during past attacks. Trump added, “When I was being hit by the radical left… Ken Paxton was at my side, more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the a–s sometimes – I’ll be honest.”
Trump also mocked the way Paxton dresses at points during the campaign and used the phrase “pain in the a–s” when talking about him.
In October, Trump pointed to Senator John Cornyn and strategist Karl Rove as reasons Paxton could fall short. He wrote on Truth Social, “Sadly, and very stupidly, John Cornyn, and his Liddle’ Buddy, Super RINO, Karl Rove, are doing everything possible to make it hard for Ken Paxton, the Greatest Attorney General in the History of Texas, and one of the Best in the United States, to win the upcoming Midterm Election against a Radical Left Lunatic, James TalaFREAKO, who is the ANTITHESIS of Texas Values.” Paxton’s campaign also drew scrutiny after a recording revealing who runs his campaign.
Days before the election, CNN data analyst Harry Enten noted Talarico’s strong standing relative to Paxton. He described Talarico’s popularity as “Earth-shattering” in comparison. Paxton has faced controversies that include fraud charges and bribery accusations, among other issues.
A CNN/SSRS poll from that period showed Talarico ahead of Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent. The same poll gave Paxton a net approval rating of negative 29 points. Other surveys also showed Talarico’s lead growing as midterms approached.
The last Democrat to hold a Senate seat from Texas was Bob Krueger, who served in 1993 after the governor appointed him to fill the vacancy left by Lloyd Bentsen. Bentsen was the last Democrat elected to the Senate from the state, winning in 1988, before leaving to join President Bill Clinton’s administration.
Published: Nov 4, 2026 09:45 am