New poll teases shock Democrat victories in Texas and Michigan as Abdul El-Sayed and James Talarico surge

The shape of American politics will be very different after Nov. 3. Multiple polls have predicted a Democratic “blue wave”, powered by widespread disapproval of Donald Trump and his administration. But, despite the many electoral races going on up and down the nation, all eyes will be on two particularly high-profile showdowns.

They are the Senate races between James Talarico and Ken Paxton in Texas, and Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers in Michigan. A win for either Talarico or El-Sayed would be seismic. Talarico’s triumph would see Texas going blue for the first time in decades, and an El-Sayed victory would show that a progressive Muslim American and opponent of Israel is a solid electoral prospect. On top of that, these two wins would pave the way for Democratic control of the Senate and the House.

And yet, for weeks, each candidate has struggled to build a convincing lead over their opponents. Polls have shown that each has had leads of a few points over the Republicans, but nothing that would suggest a convincing victory.

Is the blue wave about to wash away the Republicans?

That may now have changed. CNN has released a new poll that will make for happy reading in the Talarico and El-Sayed campaign headquarters. In Texas, they have Talarico at 49% to Paxton’s 43% among likely voters. The gap is even wider in Michigan, with El-Sayed commanding a 49% lead over Mike Rogers’ 42% among likely voters.

They also have data on two other key races. In Maine, the battle between Democrat Susan Collins and Republican Troy Jackson is too close to call. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has a slight lead over Republican Roger Marshall.

The poll also puts these Democrat leads down to the “Trump backlash” amidst his ongoing unpopularity. However, before Democrats start popping open the champagne, they sound a word of warning. They point out that voters in key Senate races are “keenly aware that their choice carries national implications.” This means that, for example, even if they personally dislike Ken Paxton and prefer James Talarico, they may still vote Republican anyway to ensure they maintain control of the Senate.

But, as always, the proof will be in the pudding, and the pudding will be served on election day. It has already been a hard-fought and often bitter electoral race, but don’t expect things to calm down just because the finish line is in sight.