Trump’s luck running out?: Democrats eager to cash in ‘opportunity’ as MAGA experiences ‘buyer’s remorse’

New Jersey’s primary election on Tuesday is set to be the most competitive and expensive in the state’s recent history, with both parties preparing for what analysts expect to be a close race in November. The election to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy has drawn significant attention as one of only two gubernatorial races this year.

The Republican primary features Jack Ciattarelli, who nearly unseated Murphy in 2021, facing off against former radio host Bill Spadea. On the Democratic side, six candidates are competing, including Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

According to Politico, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin, during his recent visit to the state, expressed optimism about the Democrats’ chances, stating that “there’s a lot of buyer’s remorse” regarding Trump, which “provides an opportunity to Democrats in this state to expand our coalition, bring people back into the fold who may have left us.” Martin’s comments follow recent polling showing a dip in Trump’s approval in New Jersey. 

Trump’s influence shapes primary dynamics

Former President Donald Trump’s presence continues to loom large over both primaries, with Republican candidates Ciattarelli and Spadea engaging in ongoing disputes over their loyalty to the former president. Despite Trump’s endorsement of Ciattarelli, the competition has remained fierce, with Trump recently reaffirming his support through a telerally and social media posts.

The race has attracted unprecedented financial investment, with candidates and independent expenditure groups collectively spending $120 million. This record-breaking spending is expected to increase further during the general election campaign.

This primary marks the first election without the traditional “county line” ballot layout, which historically gave party-backed candidates advantageous ballot positions. The new office-block format, common across the country, has created opportunities for candidates who lack traditional party support to compete more effectively.

The outcome of Tuesday’s election could provide crucial insights into the broader political landscape, particularly regarding the Democratic Party’s direction. The success of either centrist candidates like Gottheimer and Sweeney or progressives such as Baraka and Fulop could indicate potential strategies for Democrats nationwide as they prepare for upcoming elections.