Oops, Donald Trump’s Pennsylvania worries might already be trickling in

Donald Trump is punching the air right now. Early voting in Pennsylvania is sending signals that Trump may not be able to reclaim the Keystone State.

The first sign? The ladies are leading. More women have cast early ballots than men, which isn’t exactly Trump’s best news. The ladies are voting not because Kamala is a woman. Pennsylvania is a swing state, which means people vote for policies, not for Democrats or Republicans. And what’s an important issue for women? That’s right, abortion. Harris has focused her campaign on abortion rights, and it’s working. There’s a 10-point gender gap favoring women among early voters in Pennsylvania, according to Politico’s latest analysis.

But it’s not just women leading the early voting pool; seniors are making a difference too. Historically a solid bloc for Trump, Pennsylvania’s over-65 voters appear to be leaning blue in early returns. Nearly half of the early ballots in the state have come from the over-65s. Registered Democrats make up 58% of the senior voters, compared to just 35% for Republicans. We can’t be sure who registered voters are voting for in swing states but we can be sure that Trump’s team is worried right now.

It’s not just Politico’s analysis that has Trump worried. A recent Fox News poll of Pennsylvania voters gives Harris a lead over Trump. Among the over-65s, the Fox News poll showed a 5-point edge (51% to 46%). A CNN poll showed similar results as well, it put Harris two points ahead in the over-65s demographic. We can assume that Trump will dismiss the Politico and CNN results, but he can’t dismiss a Fox News poll. Trump was campaigning in Pennsylvania pretty hard. So, seeing these early votes, especially from a demographic he was popular with, must have made him fume.

What’s surprising with these early votes results is that over-65s are leaning Democrat. Seniors have been known to vote in record numbers, and they have been known to favor Republican candidates. Not this time around, however. Tom Bonier, CEO of data firm TargetSmart, took notice of this “silver surge” of senior Democratic voters. “We expected early voting to lean more Republican this year, given the pandemic’s influence on voting behaviors in 2020,” Bonier told Politico. Yes, with early ballots coming in, Harris may have snagged some loyalty from Trump’s age group.

It’s not surprising that Trump’s camp is dismissing these early indicators. They are holding firm to the narrative that Election Day turnout will tilt the scales. Pennsylvania campaign spokesperson Kush Desai insisted that Trump’s agenda is mobilizing Republicans across demographics. But that doesn’t seem to be the case. Of course, nothing is final before Election Day, but early numbers might have ruffled the GOP’s feathers.

And then there’s Harris’ consistent female support. As of now, NBC News notes a larger gender gap in the state’s early voting data, with women making up 56% of those votes. We have to remember, a third of these women didn’t even cast a ballot in 2020. Trump captured a larger slice of the female vote in 2020 than in 2016. But this may not hold true in this election. Harris is making waves on key issues, and it’s showing. Will this make Trump regret his stance on abortion? It’s evident that women don’t support an abortion ban on any level. Only time will tell if theses trends stick, but Pennsylvania is sharing up to be every bit the nail-biter it promised to be.