8 Oscar Nominees That Deserve To Win (But Will Definitely Lose)

Anybody who's read The Hollywood Reporter's annual Brutally Honest Oscar Ballots series will know that Academy Awards aren't always handed out based on merit. In fact, it's rare to find one of THR's secret Oscar voters voting based on quality; more often than not, a vote will be cast based on what the voter's peers are doing or whether or not they feel a candidate 'deserves' it. Sometimes voters make their decisions without even having watched the movies. This explains why during each Oscar ceremony, there are so many odd and oftentimes maddening results. The least-deserving triumph while the most-deserving are left in the lurch, sometimes for the the fourth or fifth time (pity cinematographer Roger Deakins, who's so far been nominated 12 times without winning). This year, favorites are already emerging in the various categories, not all of which/whom necessarily deserve to come out on top on February 28th. On that note, here are eight nominees that deserve to win but unfortunately, already look likely to be beaten. 8) Best Actress Will win: Brie Larson, Room Should win: Cate Blanchett, Carol Brie Larson is great in Room; even if she wasn't, she'd probably deserve to be in the running this year simply to make up for the Academy snubbing her performance in Short Term 12 back in 2013. After her Golden Globe win, Larson seems set to take home the 2016 Best Actress Oscar, not least for playing such a difficult, taxing part. But if we're going on merit alone, others were better in 2015. Saoirse Ronan, who so delicately depicts a young woman's coming-of-age in Brooklyn, wouldn't be unworthy of the Best Actress prize this year, but the award should really be for the best female performance of 2015: Cate Blanchett's in Carol, a potentially career-best performance. Blanchett only won two years ago, though, and already has two Oscars to her name. So, it's likely that the Academy will be looking to reward some new blood in her place this year. 7) Best Supporting Actor Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed Should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies At one point in the incredibly crowded Best Supporting Actor race (look at the former frontrunners that didn't even make it in: Michael Shannon, Idris Elba, Paul Dano, Jason Segel, Benicio Del Toro), it seemed as though Mark Rylance was a lock as this year's winner. He's outstanding in Bridge of Spies, and he even had a good narrative going for him: that of a respected theater actor virtually unknown to movie-goers all his working life, finally breaking into film aged 55. Apparently, nobody expected Sylvester Stallone. So affecting in Creed, Stallone is currently looking like the clearest winner primarily for the fact that he's a Hollywood legend, and at 69 this could be the last time the Academy has a chance to nominate him (especially considering the generally dire material he usually stars in). Still, even those who want to see Stallone rewarded as a kind of lifetime achievement award shouldn't deny that Rylance legitimately gave one of the performances of the year in Spies. 6) Best Original Score Will win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight, or John Williams, The Force Awakens Should win: Johann Johannsson, Sicario Rewarding veterans can be both a blessing and a curse at the Oscars. On the one hand, the Academy gets to reward talents who've been toiling in the industry for a long time. On the other hand, this can knock newer, and perhaps more deserving talent out of the competition, waiting for their own lifetime achievement Oscar somewhere down the line. As the Academy gears up to gift the Best Original Score award to either Ennio Morricone, for a score made up heavily from leftovers from his The Thing score, or John Williams, for a Star Wars score heavily indebted to the work he did on the original almost 40 years ago, the other, newer contenders are set to be overlooked. Johann Johannsson, who provided such a moody, atmosphere-setting soundtrack to Sicario, isn't currently even in the conversation - even though he probably ought to be considered the favorite. 5) Best Cinematography Will win: Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant Should win: Edward Lachman, Carol, or Roger Deakins, Sicario Best Cinematography Oscars, apparently, are like buses: you wait an age for one, then three come along all at once. At least, that's how it's shaping up to be for The Revenant's Emmanuel Lubezki, currently the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography, after already picking up the award last year for Birdman and the year before that for Gravity. Apparently there's nobody else in the field who even deserves a look-in anymore. Which isn't true at all, obviously. While Lubezki prepares his third winner's speech in as many years for his (frankly murky and only intermittently stellar) work on The Revenant, Roger Deakins and Edward Lachman - two veterans with 15 Oscar nominations and zero wins between them - stand to lose again. This despite Deakins doing some of his best work on Sicario and Lachman doing his best ever work on Carol, the hands-down best-looking movie in 2015. 4) Best Director Will win: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant, or Tom McCarthy, Spotlight Should win: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road This year, it seems the director who put up with the most arduous conditions and lived to tell the tale will be the one to take home the Best Director trophy. While Spotlight's Tom McCarthy was the frontrunner until only recently, after the Golden Globes it's looking like Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu - who by all accounts went through hell to get The Revenant made - will be crowned Best Director for the second year running. If we're scoring directors on hardship alone, though, George Miller surely outranks Inarritu this year. Just look at Mad Max: Fury Road: it looks like organized chaos. That's probably in part because, behind the scenes, that's how it was. Miller spent years working on this film, and remained committed to practical stunts where possible even though CGI would have cut production time down considerably. If a filmmaker had to suffer to win this year, it's Miller who deserves to be called Best Director. 3) Best Original Screenplay Will win: Inside Out, or Spotlight, or Ex Machina Should win: Bridge of Spies Despite picking up some of the best reviews of the director's later career, Steven Spielberg's latest Bridge of Spies hasn't had a great deal of love this awards season. Sure, the film's picked up six Oscar nominations, but don't be surprised if the Spies team go home completely empty-handed. This despite the screenplay, by Matt Charman and the Coen brothers, being one of the best of last year. It's difficult to predict who exactly will win the Best Original Screenplay Oscar at this point, but you can bet it'll be between Inside Out and Spotlight (though Alex Garland's Ex Machina could be a dark horse). Bridge of Spies, meanwhile, doesn't seem to be figuring in the race at all, even though Charman and particularly the Coens (their fingerprints are all over the film) turned a potentially rather dull project into something so vibrant and surprisingly amusing. 2) Best Picture Will win: The Revenant, or Spotlight Should win: The Big Short Perhaps it's because Adam McKay's The Big Short is something of a comedy-drama, and isn't just straight-up po-faced, that the movie is being judged as a lesser product (comedy rarely does as well at the Oscars as drama). Whatever the reason, The Big Short appears set to be an also-ran at this year's Oscars, trumped by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's worthy The Revenant or Tom McCarthy's Spotlight to Best Picture. The Academy often rewards movies based on their subject matter, and 2016 seems an odd year to forego the practice. The Big Short is about the defining event of the last ten years - the housing market crash that led to a global economic crisis - and its power is in how it sells this most complicated and tedious of subjects to a mainstream audience. It's a deeply important, incredibly timely message movie, that also happens to be one of the most entertaining, confidently put-together and quietly powerful of last year. 1) Best Actor Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs After years of fan dismay, it seems the time has finally come for Leonardo DiCaprio to win the Oscar denied to him for so long. First nominated 22 years ago, DiCaprio's Best Actor nom for The Revenant will translate into a win seemingly largely because it's 'his time.' Although, anybody who's actually seen The Revenant surely won't think DiCaprio's stint as Hugh Glass ranks among his best work. His most challenging role, perhaps, but Oscar-worthy? No, definitely not. The Wolf of Wall Street was DiCaprio's masterpiece; in his latest movie, he's little more than a prop for director Inarritu to place amidst the harsh elements. Just compare it to Michael Fassbender's take on Steve Jobs. Fassbender's turn in the movie of the Apple founder's life is layered, a performance of contradictions and complexity. It's quite possibly some of the greatest work to date by one of this generation's best.