Predicting The 89th Annual Academy Awards

Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Bringing us back to the realm of absolute certainties, there doesn’t seem to be any possible way for Viola Davis to lose here for her brilliant performance in Fences. After winning the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG Awards (plus many others besides), there just isn’t any doubt.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Supporting Actor has been a bit of a strange category. Mahershala Ali practically swept through the critics’ awards, winning the Critics’ Choice in the process, but he lost the Golden Globe to Aaron Taylor-Johnson (not even nominated here) and the BAFTA, which was randomly awarded to Dev Patel for Lion. However, Ali did win the SAG Award, which is by far the most important award of them all, making him the favorite to prevail here on the big night.

Best Actress
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Lead Actress was another interesting category to watch. For a while there it seemed as though Natalie Portman was on her way to earning a second Oscar after winning a number of critics’ awards (including Critics’ Choice). However, Emma Stone came back strong, winning a Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG Award for her outstanding performance in La La Land, putting her front and center to take home her first Oscar.

Best Actor
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Lead Actor will be the most nail-biting acting award of the evening, simply because of a very last-minute momentum shift. Casey Affleck dominated the awards season, winning the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and just about everything else. However, in a completely-out-of-left-field move, the SAG Award went to Denzel Washington for his performance in Fences. Again, we all know that the SAG Award is the most important one (after all, many SAG members are members of the Academy as well), so what choice do we have but to say that Washington is now in the lead?

The award has matched The Academy’s pick for the last 12 years in a row, and there doesn’t seem to be any indication that they’d be wrong now. Personally, I’m very much hoping that Affleck wins for his brilliant performance in Manchester by the Sea. Not that Washington’s performance was bad, but it just wasn’t particularly Oscar-worthy. Either SAG will be wrong here for the first time in ages, or Washington is going to pull a rare feat and take a third acting Oscar. Either way, it’ll remain tense right up until the winner is revealed.