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Predicting The Screen Actors Guild Awards (Film)

Later this evening, the Screen Actors Guild will present their awards for excellence in acting for 2013. Just like with the Golden Globes, I thought it would be fun to throw together my predictions for who is most likely to be victorious in the five film categories. As you probably know, these are different from the previous awards in that they are voted on by the actors themselves as opposed to critics, so we're not necessarily going to be seeing the same results that we have been, though it's also a strong possibility that we will be seeing exactly that. So let's dive right into it with the first category.

GRAVITY

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BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks

Who should win: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Who will win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Here’s another category where my opinion hasn’t changed in regards to who should or will win. I think that Bullock is very deserving of this award for her incredible portrayal of a woman trying to cope with unspeakable tragedy and in doing so, trying to find a reason to continue on with her life in the face of disaster during a space mission. However, as I said before, Cate Blanchett has been unstoppable throughout awards season for her 90-minute nervous breakdown in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, so you can fully expect her to win here. Anyone else winning would be a huge upset.

BEST ACTOR

Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Chiwitel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Who should win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Who will win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Among the four individual acting categories, this is the only place where my expected winner has changed. While Chiwetel Ejiofor has been the favorite throughout award season with the critics, it appears as though there is a little shift going on. Matthew McConaughey unexpectedly won the Golden Globe, followed by the Critics’ Choice award, so I’m going to go out on a limb here and predict that his streak will continue. However, it would not be surprising to see SAG fall back on Ejiofor given that he has been the most popular choice since the start.

BEST ENSEMBLE

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Dallas Buyers Club

Now we come to the Screen Actors Guild’s biggest award of the evening: Best Ensemble. This is a very important award because in all the years that they’ve been giving it out, there has only been one instance where the eventual Best Picture winner has not been included among its nominees. Before we come to my final prediction though, let’s take a look at each nominee individually.

Dallas Buyers Club – This was a rather inexplicable inclusion this year given that it’s not really much of an ensemble film (just like Argo from last year). You have a great lead from McConaughey, a stellar supporting performance from Leto, and a rather forgettable supporting performance from Jennifer Garner. Put them all together and you don’t really have a film that screams “Best Ensemble.” Don’t get me wrong, it’s a good movie. It just doesn’t belong in this category.

August: Osage County – A fantastic ensemble is buried in a film that is basically two hours of people arguing and venting. Streep and Roberts (both nominated individually) are the standouts here, while Chris Cooper, Benedict Cumberbatch, Ewan McGregor, Margo Martindale, and several others aren’t given much to do. It’s hard to object to the nomination, but given the fact that much of the ensemble is underused, it doesn’t stand much of a chance here.

Lee Daniels’ The Butler – A fantastic ensemble that include Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Robin Williams, Alan Rickman, James Marsden, Terrence Howard, John Cusack, Vanessa Redgrave, and many more. The film itself is a little long at two hours, tapering off a bit in the second half, but it’s the ensemble that keeps it going strong. That being said, this is another example of the performances getting buried under the weight of the film. It fairs much better than August: Osage County, but the chances of it winning here are rather slim due to the film not being over-enthusiastically received.