Best Picture of the Year
2014 has had a very deep selection of strong dramas, including inspirational biopics, coming-of-age stories and uncompromising explorations of madness. Alas, when looking at this year’s slate, there are a whopping 12 major contenders for the top prize.
Let’s start with the major six contenders, which we can presume are locked or very close to locked at this point. Boyhood is Richard Linklater’s magnum opus, is the year’s best-reviewed film and has been winning the most awards so far. It’s the frontrunner. Birdman is the type of film that industry folks love – a ton of strong performances, zany originality and a backstage drama story – and has the pedigree and critics’ awards to make it a spoiler. The same goes for Selma, which lost out from SAG and PGA berths due to Paramount’s failure to secure screeners for all. Regardless, the subject matter and its relevancy to the present moment (even though it is a biopic) makes it a zeitgeist-defining film.
Meanwhile, The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, both well-liked biopics about beloved Brits, are widely expected to pick up the top nomination. Finally, Wes Anderson’s The Grand Budapest Hotel has chugged along, earning major nominations in most of the other races (including SAG, BAFTA, the Globes and the PGA). With several technical nods and a screenplay nomination likely secured, it should sneak into this race.
Now, the number of nominated titles will be between five and ten. This depends on how many titles earn at least 5% of the top votes by the Academy. If, say, 15 films earned at least 5% of those top votes, the Academy will choose the 10 most popular from that pool. If only six films earn 5% or more top votes, then those are your six Best Picture nominees.
Here are some pros and cons for the rest of the viable nominees:
American Sniper
Pros: Clint Eastwood’s drawing power. Also, spectacular box office and buzz in limited release.
Cons: Besides his industry presence, Eastwood is not foolproof for the Oscars. (Gran Torino and Invictus garnered very little.) Cooper’s performance, which has received the most praise, may be shut out of Best Actor, putting the film’s likelihood in question. Despite a PGA nomination, it was shut out of many other races, like the Globes and the Critics’ Choice awards.
Foxcatcher
Pros: With a trio of strong performances and some effective direction, there is a very vocal group of admirers of Bennett Miller’s latest. Plus, with Golden Globe, PGA and SAG support, it has a lot of momentum.
Cons: The dark, disturbing film has fizzled at the box office and recent controversy about its accuracy could make some voters think twice.
Gone Girl
Pros: A fantastic box office run and a star-making turn from Rosamund Pike turned it into one of the year’s most talked-about titles. The film got a PGA nomination, as well.
Cons: It’s a beloved if provocative bestseller with David Fincher directing and a breakthrough from its female lead that earned a PGA nomination and more than $100 million at box office. Just like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. That film missed out on the Best Picture party. A lack of SAG and Golden Globe support in the top category makes one uneasy.
Nightcrawler
Pros: This critically-acclaimed film did decently at the box office but has seen a lot of buzz over the last few weeks, with a big Oscar-touting campaign highlighting Gyllenhaal, Russo and first-time director Gilroy. With PGA and Critics’ Choice support, it could sneak in.
Cons: It’s a rather macabre film that has more buzz around the performances than the final product. It could be too late to make a huge imprint in a crowded year.
Unbroken
Pros: It’s an inspiring true story with a healthy box office take. Do not underestimate the power of the Academy’s mostly older white male body, which could lead to an upset appearance in the top race. AMPAS also loves Angelina Jolie.
Cons: With almost no awards support – it was shut out the Globes and most guilds – and mixed critical reception, its chances for gold are fading by the day.
Whiplash
Pros: It has been thrilling crowds and critics since Sundance last year, and with Damien Chazelle’s screenplay and J.K. Simmons’ performance earning a ton of nominations (and wins for the latter), there is genuine approval for the film among voting bodies. The BAFTAs and PGA have helped the film break out with pivotal nominations in the past week.
Cons: Could it be a bit too small to break out in a competitive race? Besides Simmons, not much is guaranteed for the intense music drama.
So, with that taken into account, here are our final predictions for Best Picture.
The Five Main Nominees:
Birdman
Boyhood
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
If there are six nominees: add The Grand Budapest Hotel
If there are seven nominees: add Foxcatcher
If there are eight nominees: add Whiplash
If there are nine nominees, add Gone Girl
If there are ten nominees, add American Sniper
