We Got This Covered’s Early Oscar Predictions

October 2014 should go down as one of the best months in cinema history. On the one hand, the box office has been on fire, surpassing its monthly record. As for the quality of these titles, though, it is hard to think of another 31-day period that saw so many exceptional releases.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

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Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

It is rare to find a year when there are not many contenders for the Best Actor Oscar. 2014 is no different, with a dozen or so performances looking like surefire contenders. However, with such a breadth of strong work by leading men this year, in a variety of dramatic and comedic roles, there are very few locks in this race. If any category deserved to be extended to 10 nominees this year, it’s this one.

The eventual nominees may have less to do with the quality of the performances than with the strength of their films. Despite excellent turns from Brendan Gleeson (Calvary), Tom Hardy (Locke), John Lithgow (Love is Strange) and Jeremy Renner (Kill the Messenger), those indie dramas made almost nothing in theaters and are destined to be overshadowed. On the contrary, Gone Girl and Fury are doing quite well at the box office, but there is not much buzz surrounding the turns from Ben Affleck or Brad Pitt.

2014 was also filled with impressive comedic performances, notably from Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Bill Hader (The Skeleton Twins), Bill Murray (St. Vincent) and Joaquin Phoenix (Inherent Vice). However, while Golden Globe nominations are a possibility, the category is just too crowded. Ditto to talented young actors Miles Teller (Whiplash) and Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood), who have carried two of the year’s best titles on their shoulders. Despite their excellent turns, there are a couple of other breakthroughs that are getting more recognition.

It would be cool to see the wonderful actor named Oscar (Isaac, that is) get an Oscar nomination for A Most Violent Year. Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper has already proven an awards darling, and could get his third nom for Clint Eastwood’s American Sniper. However, the year’s biggest breakthrough turn reportedly comes from young British actor Jack O’Connell, whose portrayal of Louis Zamperini in Unbroken has been on Hollywood’s radar the whole year.

The race should come down to a bunch of performances that are hard to turn away from. Michael Keaton’s mad, meta performance in Birdman could be his Wrestler-like comeback role. Steve Carell’s harrowing turn in Foxcatcher should be striking enough to overcome the film’s dark material, perhaps more so than Jake Gyllenhaal, giving his second great performance this year in Nightcrawler. (His first was in the little-seen Enemy.)

Meanwhile, Timothy Spall’s bravura turn as Mr. Turner in Mike Leigh’s excellent historical drama is a thing of beauty that awarded him the Best Actor honor in Cannes. Despite Leigh’s films getting a lot of Academy approval, excellent turns from Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) and Lesley Manville (Another Year) were snubbed in years past. Last year’s winner, Matthew McConaughey, is earning raves for his turn in the to-be-blockbuster Interstellar and in a year without such competition, the actor would be more of a lock.

Instead, expect two fresh British actors playing beloved historical figures in film festival favorites to be all the rage: Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything. As a matter of fact, with such attention coming from the UK, perhaps there is room for a third young star to make it onto the ballot? This could be the rare category where all the frontrunners have never been nominated before.

Early Predictions:

  • Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
  • Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton, Birdman
  • Jack O’Connell, Unbroken
  • Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Possible Spoilers:

  • Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
  • Matthew McConaughey, Interstellar
  • Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner

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Author
Jordan Adler
Jordan Adler is a film buff who consumes so much popcorn, he expects that a coroner's report will one day confirm that butter runs through his veins. A recent graduate of Carleton's School of Journalism, where he also majored in film studies, Jordan's writing has been featured in Tribute Magazine, the Canadian Jewish News, Marketing Magazine, Toronto Film Scene, ANDPOP and SamaritanMag.com. He is also working on a feature-length screenplay.