We Got This Covered’s Early Oscar Predictions

Best Picture

Since the Academy rules changed in recent years to allow up to 10 nominated films a shot at the Best Picture award, predicting this category has become something of a different beast. The quantity of nominated films will be between five and ten, decided on how many titles earn at least 5% of the top votes by the Academy. (For instance, if 5% of the Academy votes that Foxcatcher is the best of the year, that film earns a nomination – given that ten other movies didn’t receive more first place votes.)

As a result, predicting this category has been difficult, since one cannot be sure of the total number of spots available. Therefore, the trick is to figure our which five films are the most locked for this category and then add a few wild cards to round out the list in case the race extends to ten nominees.

There are a few films that seem destined for this category. With its marvelous ensemble cast, enthralling story and commentary on the arts, Birdman seems like an early favourite among industry voters. Boyhood has been the year’s most talked-about title, and with immense critical and audience support, it should be a lock for the category. World War II dramas based on a true story – a genre that gets a lot of sympathy from the predominantly elderly male contingent of the Academy – should ensure that The Imitation Game and Unbroken are key players in this race.

As for the fifth spot, there are a variety of possible contenders. Clint Eastwood is a Hollywood icon and his newest thriller, American Sniper, could have its fair share of supporters if the reviews and box office are good. Gone Girl and Interstellar have the box office on their side, although one doubts they are in a position to win the top honor. For potential art-house breakthroughs, Mike Leigh’s Mr. Turner, Damien Chazelle’s Whiplash and J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year have what it takes to be critical favorites, but breaking out into the top category will depend on how high their profile goes.

Instead, the Academy may choose a couple of safer crowd-pleasers instead of riskier, more subversive fare like Inherent Vice and Nightcrawler. Since the actors branch is the largest in the organization, expect a lot of love for Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher (which will make the director three for three for Best Picture nominations), The Theory of Everything and Wild. (Two Days, One Night may have more luck in the foreign language category.)

The Main Five:

• Birdman
• Boyhood
• Foxcatcher
• The Imitation Game
• Unbroken

Potential Nominees (if there are more than five):

• American Sniper
• Gone Girl
• Interstellar
• The Theory of Everything
• Wild

Possible Spoilers:

• Big Eyes
• Inherent Vice
• A Most Violent Year
• Mr. Turner
• Whiplash