Federal investigators are looking into a massive and suspicious trade in the oil markets that happened just before a major announcement about the conflict with Iran. On March 23, data from LSEG shows that at 6:50 a.m., more than $800 million was placed as a bet on oil prices falling.
Just 15 minutes later, President Donald Trump posted on social media that the White House and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” about ending hostilities. Oil prices then dropped by more than 10 percent, potentially earning the trader or traders involved tens of millions of dollars.
According to CBS News, former commodities trader David Kovel told 60 Minutes that the timing is highly suspicious. He noted that the trade happened during a slow period in the market, which makes such a large bet at that specific moment stand out even more. Without a full investigation, it is impossible to know who made the trade, but Kovel says identifying that person or group is the key to finding out whether this was illegal insider trading.
Insider trading tied to military intelligence is proving very hard to stop
This case is part of a wider and growing trend of people using prediction markets and commodities exchanges to bet on military conflicts. Whether it involves the timing of an attack or the fate of world leaders, these markets have seen over a billion dollars in such bets this year alone, creating a new kind of insider trading that is difficult for authorities to police.
Military betting is prohibited on platforms like Polymarket, but digital workarounds make it easy for people to get around those rules. Trump’s handling of sensitive diplomatic and military matters continues to draw scrutiny, with his own words being used against him in a $63 million lawsuit raising further questions about accountability.
In one notable case, the Justice Department charged U.S. Army master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified intelligence to place bets on the surprise raid that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Van Dyke allegedly made roughly $34,000 in wagers and netted over $400,000 before trying to delete his account. He has pleaded not guilty.
The problem appears to go much deeper than one soldier. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified nine connected accounts on Polymarket that together made $2.4 million by betting on U.S. military operations with a 98 percent win rate.
Deebs, the firm’s head of investigations, pointed out that military planners, intelligence analysts, and even their spouses could potentially hold information that is not available to the public. That level of success is virtually impossible without inside knowledge.
The pressure to win these bets has even reached the media. Military correspondent Emanuel Fabian received threats after publishing a story about an Iranian missile strike. One person told him, “You’re gonna make us lose $900,000. And we’ll invest even more than that to finish you.” The threats included details about his family, showing just how high the stakes can get when millions of dollars are involved.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is responsible for policing these markets, but enforcement actions have dropped significantly since 2024. Some of Trump’s supporters have gone as far as claiming divine purpose behind his presidency, but legal and regulatory troubles surrounding his administration keep piling up.
Current chairman Michael Selig has promised to hold bad actors accountable, and the White House issued a memo reminding staff that using non-public information for betting is a criminal offense. Still, experts worry that if market watchers can easily spot these irregular trades, foreign adversaries could be using the same information to plan their own moves, which could put lives at risk.
Published: May 18, 2026 12:49 pm